[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 20 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently nine active sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3551 (N29W38, beta), AR3555 (S09E22, beta)
and AR3559 (N29E46, beta) have all shown some minor growth over
the past 24 hours but overall most sunspots on the disk are stable.
AR3559 appears to be the most magnetically complex region, although
has not produced any solar flares at this stage. Solar activity
is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1 over 20-22 Jan.
A slow moving CME was observed from 19/1348 UT directed to the north,
which was associated with a prominence eruption near the north
pole from 19/1032 UT and is not expected to be geoeffective.
A very faint partial halo CME can be seen from 19/1812 UT. There
is no obvious on disk source to attribute to this CME, however
a preliminary model with the assumption it is front-side shows
a weak impact at 22/1900 UT +/- 12 hours. Should this CME be
front-side, the impact is not expected to be significant in any
way. No other CMEs were observed on 19-Jan.
The solar wind environment on UT day 19-Jan was generally reflective
of background conditions. The solar wind speed data reported by the
DSCOVR satellite is possibly suspect, however the general range
given was around 420-260 km/s. The peak total planetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to be mostly
at background levels over 20-22 Jan, although there is a chance
for some enhancements due to a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere
on 20-Jan. This feature is relatively high latitude though, so
this enhancement may not eventuate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12212111
Cocos Island 3 11122100
Darwin 4 12212111
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 6 22222211
Alice Springs 5 12212112
Gingin 4 12212111
Canberra 5 13211112
Hobart 6 13311112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 13220111
Casey 14 34433212
Mawson 17 34523321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 10 G0
21 Jan 6 G0
22 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 20-22
Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Jan were
normal, with some sporadic-E present at low latitudes. Normal
conditions are expected over 20-22 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 157
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 160 15-40% above monthly predicted values
21 Jan 160 15-40% above monthly predicted values
22 Jan 160 15-40% above monthly predicted values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Jan were
enhanced by 15-35% in the Australian region. Brief sporadic-E
was observed at Hobart, Niue Island and Norfolk Island Canberra
during local dawn hours. MUFs are expected to be enhanced 15-40%
over 20-22 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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