[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 19 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1 R0 chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspots on
the solar disk. AR3555 (S09E36, beta) has shown some minor change
in the past day, but all other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity over 19-21 Jan is expected to be
R0 with a chance for R1.
A filament eruption was observed at 18/1108 UT in the northeast solar
quadrant and was associated with a northeast directed CME, which is not
considered to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on 18-Jan.
Currently there are a large number of filaments on the solar disk, and
will be monitored closely for any potential eruption.
The solar wind environment on UT day 18-Jan was near background levels.
The solar wind speed ranged between 290 and 420 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. The solar
wind is expected to remain near background levels over 19-21
Jan. There is a possibility of an enhancement to the solar wind
speed on 20-Jan from a northern hemisphere coronal hole, however
this feature may have too high of a latitude to connect with
Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12211122
Cocos Island 4 12211121
Darwin 5 12211122
Townsville 6 22211123
Learmonth 6 12221132
Alice Springs 5 12211122
Gingin 5 11211132
Canberra 5 12221122
Hobart 5 12221122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 11242011
Casey 17 35422133
Mawson 20 23233263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0010 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 6 G0
20 Jan 6 G0
21 Jan 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 18-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 19-21 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-Jan were
normal, with sporadic-E present at low latitudes. Normal conditions
are expected over 18-20 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 165
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 160 15-40% above monthly predicted values
20 Jan 160 15-40% above monthly predicted values
21 Jan 160 15-40% above monthly predicted values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Jan were
enhanced by 15-25% in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed
at Brisbane, Darwin and Townsville during local night and dawn
hours. MUFs are expected to be enhanced 15-40% over 19-21 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 77400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list