[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 18 10:30:11 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Ja was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seventeen numbered regions
on the solar disk, however most of these are on the limb about
to rotate away from view or else have decayed almost completely.
This leaves only eight notable regions on the solar disk, although
most of these regions are stable and none are considered magnetically
complex. AR3553 (N05E20, beta) has shown some very minor growth
in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with
a chance for R1 over 18-20 Jan.
No CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours. There is an unstable
filament near S30E45 that will be monitored for any potential eruption.
The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Jan was on a general declining trend
and ranged between 472 to 312 km/s, possibly due to Earth exiting
a recent coronal hole wind stream. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) ranged between +2 to -3 nT. The solar wind environment is
expected to be near background levels over 18-20 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11211011
Cocos Island 2 11111010
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 3 20211111
Alice Springs 2 11200002
Gingin 4 21211111
Canberra 2 11201011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11101001
Casey 11 34332111
Mawson 11 33322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 8 G0
19 Jan 6 G0
20 Jan 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 18-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 18-20 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Jan were
normal. Normal conditions are expected over 18-20 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 178
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 160 20-50% above predicted monthly values
19 Jan 160 20-50% above monthly predicted values
20 Jan 160 20-50% above monthly predicted values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Jan were
enhanced by 15-60% from monthly predicted values in the Australian
region. Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
generally good on 17-Jan. MUFs are expected to be 20-50% enhanced
over 18-20 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 18000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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