[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 16 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 17 10:31:01 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jan was R0. Solar regions
AR3541(S20W71, beta) and AR3549(S17E14, beta) produced low level
C class flares. Two minor numbered regions have decayed and a
newly numbered minor region AR3556(N17E68, beta) has rotated
further onto the disk. There are currently nine numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk, with all regions relatively small
and mostly stable. The cluster of three regions AR3540(S14W69,
beta), AR3541(S20W71, beta) and AR3552(S21W62, beta) in the far
south west solar quadrant, which have recently shown spot redistribution,
are approaching the western solar limb and appear to be now declining.
An erupting solar limb prominence was observed on the southwest
solar limb centred at solar latitude S60 from 15/2249UT. Solar
activity is expected to be R0, with the chance of an isolated
R1-Minor flare over 17-19 Jan. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. In LASCO C2 imagery a narrow westward
CME first visible from 15/1812UT could not be correlated to on
disk activity. A south southwest CME was observed from 15/2348UT,
directed out of the ecliptic plane, associated with the southwest
solar limb prominence eruption and is considered as not Earth
directed. A faint slow north northwest CME was observed from
approximately 16/0436UT and a narrow south southeast CME was
observed from 16/1124UT. Neither of these CMEs could be associated
with on disk activity and are predominately directed out of the
ecliptic plane. The solar wind speed appeared to be steady on
16-Jan, however the available solar wind data is currently very
variable and may not be indicative of actual conditions. The
solar wind speed is estimated to have ranged from 298km/s to
350 km/s and is currently estimated at around 337 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. A mild
increase in solar wind speed is possible over 17 Jan, due to
a small coronal hole now in the northwest solar quadrant. The
solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels on
18-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 4 22112111
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 4 21122111
Gingin 5 32121111
Canberra 5 22222111
Hobart 5 22221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 22000011
Casey 16 35432212
Mawson 12 34312223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1011 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 10 G0
18 Jan 8 G0
19 Jan 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jan. Generally G0 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region with an isolated G1 period at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-19 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Jan were
normal. Normal conditions are expected over 17-19 Jan. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 154
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Jan in
the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed at some sites during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 17-19 Jan. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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