[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 16 10:31:01 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 183/136
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jan was R0, with the largest
flare a C2.8 flare at 15/1406UT. There are currently twelve numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions,
although the majority are magnetically simple. AR3540 (S14W58,
beta-gamma), AR3541 (S20W60, beta-gamma) and AR3549 (S17E25,
gamma) are the most magnetically complex regions on the solar
disk and displayed trailer movement during the UT day. The largest
flare of the day was produced by AR3553 (N05E44, beta) which
was stable over 15-Jan. All other numbered active regions were
either stable or in decay over the UT day. Two unnumbered regions
have recently rotated onto the solar disk, one at S18E68 with
beta magnetic characteristics and one at N17E80 with alpha magnetic
characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 16-18 Jan. Multiple CMEs were observed over the UT day,
but none are considered geoeffective. A faint SW directed broad
CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 15/0648UT. There
is no on disk source associated with this event and it is not
considered geoeffective. A northeast directed, narrow CME is
visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 15/1636UT. An eruption
is visible at around N08E46 from 15/1407UT in SDO imagery, however
coronal movement over the eastern limb is also visible from 15/1558UT
in GOES SUVI imagery. This latter event is considered associated
with this CME due to a superior match in observation times and
in the direction of the coronal movement. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. A west directed CME is visible in SOHO imagery
from 15/1812UT. There is no clear on disk source for this CME
and coronagraph imagery is currently limited for this event.
It is currently not considered geoeffective, however further
analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available.
The solar wind speed appeared to be steady on 15-Jan, however
poor solar wind data makes this difficult to analyse. The solar
wind speed appeared to range from 208 km/s to 489 km/s and is
currently at around 335 km/s. The lower speeds of the range are
likely more accurate as geomagnetic activity is low and STEREO-A
is reporting speeds around 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. An increase in solar wind speed is
possible over 16-17 Jan, due to a small coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere currently rotating onto a geoeffective position. The
solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels on
18-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21213022
Cocos Island 4 11113011
Darwin 6 21213022
Townsville 7 21223023
Learmonth 7 22223022
Alice Springs 6 21213022
Gingin 6 21213022
Canberra 6 21213022
Hobart 5 11213022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 11311012
Casey 14 34432123
Mawson 11 32222134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 10 G0
17 Jan 10 G0
18 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Jan were
mostly normal, although sporadic-E has been common at low and
middle latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
16-18 Jan, with sporadic-E likely to persist. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Jan were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region,
with enhancements of up to 15% in the southern Australian region
during local night. Sporadic-E was present across the Australian
region over 15-Jan mostly during local dawn and dusk hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 16-18 Jan. Sporadic-E is likely to persist during local
dawn and dusk hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 285000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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