[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 15 10:31:00 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jan was R0, with the strongest
solar flare being C9.5 from a region beyond the western limb,
possibly ex-region AR3543. There are currently twelve numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk, most of which have a bipolar
magnetic classification, although most regions are either stable
or in decay. AR3540 (S17W47, beta) has shown some rapid growth
over the past 24 hours; AR3549 (S18E16, beta) has had some minor
growth in its trailer spots and AR3550 (S17W00, alpha) has had
some minor overall growth. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1
over 15-17 Jan, with any activity likely to be from AR3540 or
AR3541 (S17W45, beta).
Several filament and prominence eruptions
were observed on 14-Jan. One prominence eruption in the northwest
solar quadrant was associated with a slow moving CME that was
first observed from 14/0336 UT, but this is not expected to be
geoeffective. Another CME associated with a southern directed
filament eruption was observed from 14/0936 UT, which is also
not expected to be geoeffective. Another filament eruption was
observed from 14/1835 near N20E10, however no associated CME
has been sighted.
A fast CME was observed from 14/1212 UT, likely
associated with the C9.5 solar flare from a region beyond the
western solar limb. This CME is mostly expected to miss Earth,
although it may interact with the coronal hole wind stream on
17-Jan but not in any significant way.
Associated with this event was an increase in the 10 MeV solar
proton flux. So far the 10 MeV protons have only reached
0.48 pfu, very much below the S1 threshold, but if the region
that produced the C9 solar flare continues to flare then S1
solar radiation storm conditions may be possible over 15-16 Jan.
Solar wind speed data from ACE/ DSCOVR is still suspect, however
has been steady near background levels. The solar wind speed
reported by the STEREO-A spacecraft ranged between 350-500 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +1 to -6 nT. Solar wind
parameter Bz has been predominantly oriented southward since
14/0715 UT, although there has been no significant geomagnetic
disturbance. There is a coronal hole currently in the
northern solar hemisphere near W20 that may increase solar wind speeds
from 16-17 Jan, otherwise the solar wind environment is expected
to remain near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11132222
Cocos Island 5 11121222
Darwin 6 11132222
Townsville 7 11132232
Learmonth 6 11132222
Alice Springs 6 11132222
Gingin 6 11132222
Canberra 6 11132222
Hobart 7 11232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 00133321
Casey 11 23333222
Mawson 17 33223444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 12 G0, very slight chance G1
16 Jan 8 G0
17 Jan 10 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 15-17 Jan. There is a small chance
for brief G1 conditions on 15-Jan due to possible glancing blows
from CMEs first seen on 11-Jan, although this is low confidence.
A coronal hole wind stream may become geoeffective by late 16-Jan
to increase solar wind speeds, but it is not expected to cause
significant geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Jan were
mostly normal, although sporadic-E has been common at low and
middle latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
15-17 Jan, with sporadic-E likely to persist. A mild disturbance
to conditions may be observed on 15-Jan due to possible CME and
coronal hole activity, although this is not expected to be significant.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 163
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 155 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 150 Near to 30% predicted monthly values
17 Jan 155 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Jan were
enhanced 20-25% in most of the Australian region, and 45% in
the northern region during local night. Sporadic-E was present
at most sites on the Australian east coast during local dawn
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 30% enhanced over 15-17 Jan. Sporadic-E is likely to persist
in the eastern parts of Australia during local night and dawn
hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 341000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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