[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 14 10:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares and mostly steady X-ray flux. There are currently
eleven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, at least nine
of them having a bipolar magnetic configuration. AR3541 (S18W32,
beta-gamma) is the only region that has shown any significant growth;
throughout the day it appeared to develop a small delta spot,
but this has now mostly decayed. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1 over 14-16 Jan, with AR3541 being the region most likely
to flare.
A narrow CME was observed from 13/1624 UT from the
southeast, but is not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs
were observed today.
The solar wind on UT day 13-Jan was mostly
stable. The solar wind speed was steady near 500 km/s before
readings dropped to near 250 km/s. Solar wind speed data is
currently limited, with the ACE satellite not reporting any data
and DSCOVR showing anomalous data. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. A small coronal hole has crossed
the central meridian in the northern hemisphere and may increase
solar wind speeds by 15-16 Jan, coupled with some possible glancing
blows from recent CMEs. This enhancement is not expected to be
significant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 3 21111101
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Gingin 1 11100101
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 2 11111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 11 34332112
Mawson 8 32112223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 6 G0
15 Jan 12 G0, slight chance G1
16 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 13-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-16 Jan. On 15-Jan two CMEs may
possibly have glancing impacts to Earth, in addition to a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. This disturbance is not expected
to be significant.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Jan were
mostly normal, although sporadic-E has been common at low and
middle latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
14-16 Jan, with sporadic-E likely to persist. A mild disturbance
to conditions may be observed on 15-Jan due to possible CME and
coronal hole activity, although this is not expected to be significant.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 162
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 160 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 150 Near to 25% predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on
12 January and is current for 13-14 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-Jan were enhanced 20-30% in the Australian
region. Sporadic-E was observed during daylight hours on the
eastern side of Australia, at sites such as Townsville, Norfolk
Island and Canberra. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to up to 30% enhanced over 14-16 Jan. Sporadic-E is expected
to persist, particularly at low latitudes. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 331000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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