[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 13 10:31:02 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0258UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3540 (S17W19, beta), AR3546 (S24E13, beta)
and AR3548 (N12E42, beta) have shown some minor growth in their
trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity over 13-15 Jan is expected to be R0-R1.
Several CMEs were observed on 12-Jan, although none are considered
geoeffective. There are currently several large prominences on
the eastern limb which have been steadily erupting over the past
24 hours, some of which are associated with east directed CMEs.
The solar wind on UT day 12-Jan was indicative of background
conditions. The total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3
to -3 nT. The solar wind speed was elevated, and ranged between
460-500 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected to be mostly
near background levels over 13-15 Jan, with some possible enhancements
on 15-Jan due to some possible glancing blows from recent CMEs,
although this is not expected to be significant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 11111221
Learmonth 3 11112201
Alice Springs 2 11101101
Gingin 2 10111101
Canberra 2 11011111
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00010210
Casey 16 35432222
Mawson 9 22122224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0122 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 5 G0
14 Jan 8 G0
15 Jan 15 G0, slight chance for G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
13-15 Jan, with a slight chance for G1 on 15-Jan due to possible
glancing blows from recent CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Jan were
mostly normal, although degradations during local night hours
at low and middle latitudes were observed. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over 13-15 Jan, with continued degraded conditions
during local night hours at low and middle latitudes. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 145 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on
12 January and is current for 13-14 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Jan were mostly enhanced by 15-30% in the
Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra,
Hobart, Norfolk Island and Perth during local night and dawn
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 25% enhanced over 13-15 Jan. Persistent sporadic-E is likely.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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