[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 12 10:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 10/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 1251UT possible lower European
M1.5 1752UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1924UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 190/143 186/139
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.3 flare at 11/1251UT, an M1.5 at 11/1752UT and an
M1.2 flare at 11/1924UT. There are currently nine numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and four unnumbered regions.
The M1.3 and M1.2 flares were produced by AR3538 (N20W82) which
has rotated off the solar disk completely and thus its magnetic
character cannot be determined. The M1.5 flare was produced by
AR3539 (N11W49, beta), which showed some trailer movement during
the UT day. AR3541 (S21W04, gamma), AR3546 (S24E26, beta) and
AR3547 (N19E20, beta) all displayed development on 11-Jan. AR3539
is the most significant sunspot group on the solar disk, due
to its size and history of flare activity. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions
have developed on the solar disk, one is visible at S13E36 and
the other is at N14E60, both with beta magnetic complexity. Two
further unnumbered regions have rotated onto the solar disk at
N27E70 and S19E75, also with beta magnetic complexity. The region
at S19E75 was responsible for an M1.4 flare on 10-Jan. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Jan. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered significantly geoeffective.
A filament lift off at around N35E60 is visible in SDO, GOES
SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 11/0533UT. This is associated with
a northwest directed CME visible from 11/0612 in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery. Whilst most of this CME will pass behind the Earth,
modelling suggests there is a chance of a glancing impact from
this CME on 15-Dec at 0700UT +/- 12 hours. An eruption at around
N10E60, visible from 11/0805UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
is associated with a west directed CME, visible from 11/0848UT
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. As with the previous CME, most
of the ejecta will pass behind Earth, but there is a chance of
a glancing impact on 15-Jan at 1700UT +/- 12 hours. A narrow,
northwest directed CME is visible from 11/1326UT in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery. This may be associated with a filament lift
off visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 11/1234UT.
This CME is not currently considered geoeffective, but analysis
is ongoing. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Jan was mostly
stable, ranging from 393 to 538 km/s and is currently near 495
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain steady over
12-14 Jan, with a gradual decrease possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12212212
Cocos Island 2 02111101
Darwin 4 12211112
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 5 22212202
Alice Springs 4 12212102
Gingin 6 22212212
Canberra 5 12212122
Hobart 7 13312212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 02222111
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 11 33223223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1213 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 5 G0
13 Jan 5 G0
14 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Jan. There is a chance of G1 conditions on 15-Jan,
due to possible glancing impacts from CMEs first observed on
11-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Jan were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 12-14
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
10 January and is current for 10-12 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Jan in the northern Australian region were
20% enhanced. MUFs in the southern Australian region were near
predicted monthly values during local day, with enhancements
of up to 15% observed during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart, although weaker than previous
days. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced over 12-14 Jan. Further sporadic E in the south
east of the Australian region is likely. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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