[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 11 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1256UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.4 flare at 10/1255UT. There are currently eleven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. The M1.4 flare at 10/1255UT was produced by an active
region off the eastern limb which is not yet visible on the solar
disk, once it appears this region is likely to be the most significant
on disk. AR3538 (N25W79, beta), AR3539 (N11W36, beta-gamma),
AR3541 (S21E09, beta-gamma) and AR3546 (S24E39, beta) all showed
development over the UT-day, although AR3538 will rotate off
the solar disk over 11-Jan. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 11-13 Jan. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. A northeast directed CME is visible
in SOHO and SDO imagery from 09/2312UT. An associated filament
eruption is visible at around N15E80 in GOES SUVI, SDO and H-Alpha
imagery from 09/2058UT modelling suggests this CME has no geoeffective
component. A north directed narrow CME is visible in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery from 10/0536UT. There is no clear on disk source
for this CME and it is not considered geoeffective. A southwest
directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 10/0612UT.
An associated filament lift off is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI
and H-Alpha imagery from 10/0444UT at around S19 on the western
limb. Modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective component.
An east directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 10/0648UT with no clear on disk activity associated. This
CME is not considered geoeffective. A west directed partial halo
is visible in STEREO-A only from 10/1953UT. Faint coronal loop
movement is visible off the western limb in GOES SUVI imagery
from 10/1946UT. This CME is considered far side and not geoeffective.
An eruption is visible off the eastern limb from 10/2034UT at
around N15 in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. There is no
associated CME visible in current coronagraph imagery. Given
the location of the eruption, any CME associated with this event
is unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
10-Jan was mostly stable, ranging from 359 to 462 km/s and is
currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease towards background levels over 11-13 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Cocos Island 4 11121122
Darwin 6 21122222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 21232222
Alice Springs 6 12122222
Gingin 7 21133122
Canberra 7 12232222
Hobart 9 22233222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 12244121
Casey 22 45533232
Mawson 18 43234334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1120 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 8 G0
12 Jan 5 G0
13 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 11-13 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Jan were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations in the northern hemisphere.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 11-13 Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
10 January and is current for 10-12 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Jan in the northern Australian region were
25-30% enhanced, with stronger enhancements during local night.
MUFs in the southern Australian region were near predicted monthly
values during local day, with enhancements of up to 20% observed
during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra,
Hobart and Norfolk Island, with the strongest incidences observed
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 11-13 Jan. Further sporadic E in the south
east of the Australian region is likely. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 98500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list