[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 10 10:31:12 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3538
(N25W64, beta) was responsible for the majority of the C-class
flares observed. This region showed initial decay in the early
part of the UT day before growing over the remainder of the day.
AR3539 (N11W20, beta) has exhibited spot development over the
24-hour period. Newly numbered region AR3545 (S06E72, alpha)
recently rotated over the eastern limb and is stable. A second
newly numbered region AR3546 (S24E55, beta) has shown spot growth
since appearing on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Jan. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A broad southeast directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
09/1548UT. An associated eruption is visible in GOES SUVI imagery
from 09/1456UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A filament
eruption was observed near N12E75 at 09/2052UT. No associated
CME has been observed as yet however a CME from this event is
unlikely to be Earth-directed. The solar wind speed on UT day
09-Jan was mostly stable, ranging from 360 to 410 km/s and is
currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease to background levels over 10-12 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Cocos Island 3 21111200
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 5 22121212
Learmonth 5 22211202
Alice Springs 4 22111202
Gingin 4 21211112
Canberra 5 22211112
Hobart 5 22212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 22121101
Casey 19 45432223
Mawson 12 43322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 5 G0
11 Jan 5 G0
12 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 10-12 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Jan were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 10-12
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Jan in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 25%
enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 10-12 Jan. Further sporadic E in the Australian
region is likely. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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