[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 9 10:31:02 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3536 (N05W28, beta-gamma) and AR3540 (S17E36, beta-gamma)
are the most magnetically complex regions on the solar disk.
AR3536 has shown some decay in its trailer spots whilst AR3540
has shown spot development in its intermediate spots. AR3538
(N25W51, beta) and AR3543 (S05W29, beta) have both exhibited
spot growth over the UT day. AR3541 (S20E34, beta) has shown
some spot development. Two unnumbered regions are visible near
S07E86 (alpha) and S08E45 (alpha). Both unnumbered regions appear
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 09-11 Jan,
with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Jan increased, ranging from
295 to 360 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to increase over 09-11 Jan due to a mild influence
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 10011122
Cocos Island 2 00111121
Darwin 2 10001122
Townsville 3 11011122
Learmonth 3 10011122
Alice Springs 2 00001112
Gingin 2 00011122
Canberra 2 00001022
Hobart 3 11012012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 00003011
Casey 9 23322132
Mawson 9 12113224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 8 G0
10 Jan 5 G0
11 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 09-11 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Jan were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 09-11
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 165
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on
6 January and is current for 7-9 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Jan in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to 15-30% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at
several Australian sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Jan. Further sporadic
E in the Australian region is expected. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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