[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 8 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 7-Jan was at the R0 level,
with multiple C-class flares. There are currently ten numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3534 (S12W82, alpha),
AR3536 (N05W18, beta), AR3539 (N11E03, beta-gamma) and AR3540
(S17E46, beta) were responsible for the many C-class flares on
7-Jan, with AR3534 being responsible for the largest flare of
the day, a C8.8. AR3534 is currently rotating off the solar disk,
AR3536 and AR3539 showed development over the UT day, whilst
AR3540 displayed movement in its trailer spots and is currently
the largest sunspot group visible on the solar disk. AR3538 (N25W41,
beta-gamma) and AR3543 (S05W19, beta) also showed spot development
over the UT day. All other sunspot regions appear stable. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 8-10 Jan, with
a chance of R2. The >10MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES,
was enhanced over 7-Jan, but was below the S1 threshold with
a declining trend. S0 conditions are expected over 8-10 Jan unless
significant flaring activity occurs. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed on 7-Jan. Discrepancies between solar wind monitoring
satellites make the solar wind speed difficult to analyse for
7-Jan, the solar wind speed seems steady but ranged between 294
to 487 km/s and is currently at around 300 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 3 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -2 nT. An increase in
the solar wind speed is expected on 8-Jan due to high speed wind
stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
The solar wind is expected to be slightly elevated on 9-Jan,
with a decline to background levels expected on 10-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 10110101
Cocos Island 2 11210000
Darwin 1 10100101
Townsville 1 10110101
Learmonth 2 00110201
Alice Springs 0 00100100
Gingin 1 10100101
Canberra 0 00100100
Hobart 1 00210100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 7 23321111
Mawson 4 22111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 10 G0
09 Jan 8 G0
10 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 7-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 8-10 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 7-Jan were
mostly normal in the southern hemisphere and normal to fair in
the northern hemisphere at all latitudes. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over 8-10 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on
6 January and is current for 7-9 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 7-Jan in the southern Australian region were
enhanced by up to 25%. In the northern Australian region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed across
the Australian region and was particularly strong in the south-eastern
Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 8-10 Jan. Further sporadic E is expected
in the southern and eastern Australian regions. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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