[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 7 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Jan was at the R0 level,
with many C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3536 (N05W04, beta-gamma), AR3538 (N25W28, beta-gamma)
and AR3540 (S17E60, gamma) are the most complex sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3540 is the largest group on the disk, displayed
trailer movement over the UT day and was responsible for one
of the C-class flares. AR3536 and AR3538 were responsible for
the remainder of the C-class flares, AR3536 showed some decay
and AR3538 developed over 6-Jan. AR3539 (N11E15, beta) also showed
development over the UT day. All other numbered regions are stable.
An unnumbered region developed on the solar disk at around S01E03
with beta magnetic complexity, another region has recently rotated
onto the solar disk at around N20E78 with alpha magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 7-9 Jan,
with a chance of R2. The >10MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES,
was enhanced over 6-Jan, but was below the S1 threshold with
a declining trend. There is a chance of S1 conditions on 7-Jan
if significant flaring occurs. S0 conditions are expected over
8-9 Jan. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 6-Jan. A southeast
directed CME is visible from 06/0912UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery.
An associated eruption is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery from 06/0532UT at around N10E10, associated with a C4.1
flare, this eruption is clearly directed to the southeast. Modelling
suggests this CME has no geoeffective component, however this
was undertaken with limited STEREO-A imagery and further analysis
will be performed when more imagery becomes available. A west
directed narrow CME is visible from 06/1100UT in SOHO imagery.
There is no clear, on disk activity associated with this event
and it is not considered geoeffective. A northeast directed CME
is visible from 06/1512UT in SOHO imagery. This event may be
associated with an eruption, visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery from 06/1317UT at around N40E35. This CME is not currently
considered geoeffective, but analysis is ongoing. Discrepancies
between solar wind monitoring satellites make the solar wind
speed difficult to analyse for 6-Jan, The solar wind speed seems
steady but ranged between 326 to 495 km/s and is currently fluctuating
broadly around 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 3 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain steady, until an increase late on 7-Dec due to high
speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere. This feature is expected to continue to enhance the
solar wind speed over 8-Dec, with a decline possible on 9-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11010001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 01110001
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 11010000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Gingin 1 11010001
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 1 12000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 9 34321111
Mawson 10 33111043
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1201 2210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 G0
08 Jan 10 G0
09 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 6-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 7-9 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2225UT 04/01, Ended at 0125UT 05/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 6-Jan were
mostly normal in the southern hemisphere and normal to fair in
the northern hemisphere at all latitudes. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over 7-9 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 6-Jan in
the southern Australian region were enhanced by 30% during local
day and 25% during local night. In the northern Australian region
MUFs were enhanced by 15% during local day and 30% during local
night. Sporadic E was observed across the Australian region and
was particularly strong at Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Norfolk
Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 7-9 Jan. Further sporadic E is expected.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 180000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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