[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 6 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Jan was at the R0 level.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3536 (N05E09, beta-gamma) and AR3538 (N25W15,
beta-gamma) are the most complex sunspot regions on the solar
disk and both displayed trailer spot movement over the UT day.
Newly numbered region AR3540 (S17E73, beta) possibly displayed
spot development on 5-Jan, although its proximity to the eastern
limb makes this difficult to confirm. All other numbered regions
are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region is visible
at around N29E61 with alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 6-8 Jan, with a chance
of R2. S1 solar radiation conditions were observed at the beginning
of the day, with a declining 10MeV proton flux. S1 conditions
ended at around 05/0140UT and the flux was in decline for the
remainder of the UT day. Whilst the flux remains elevated, further
S1 conditions are unlikely without strong flaring activity.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 5-Jan. A west directed CME
was observed from 05/0200UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. An
associated filament eruption is visible at around N09E28 from
04/2308UT in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery. Modelling suggests
this CME has no geoeffective component.
The solar wind speed on UT day 5-Jan was steady, ranging from
416 to 504 km/s and is currently near 485 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to be in decline towards background levels over
6-7 Jan. An increase is expected late on 7-Jan due to a coronal
hole in the southern hemisphere, currently at the meridian and
rotating towards a geoeffective location. This enhancement is
expected to continue into 8-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 12111101
Cocos Island 3 21121100
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 4 21112201
Alice Springs 4 12112102
Gingin 4 21112201
Canberra 4 12111112
Hobart 3 12211101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11102201
Casey 14 34432213
Mawson 12 33223323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 5 G0
07 Jan 8 G0
08 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 5-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 6-8 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2250UT 03/01, Ended at 2155UT 04/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2225UT 04/01, Ended at 0125UT 05/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 5-Jan were
mostly normal in the southern hemisphere and normal to fair in
the northern hemisphere at all latitudes. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over 6-8 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on
4 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 5-Jan in the southern Australian region were
enhanced by 20% during local day and 15% during local night.
In the northern Australian region MUFs were near predicted monthly
values during local day, with enhancements of up to 45% observed
during local night. particularly at Darwin. Sporadic E was observed
across the Australian region and was generally stronger at higher
latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 6-8 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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