[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 5 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0116UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.8 0155UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to an M3.8 flare at 04/0155UT from AR3536 (N05E24, beta).
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3536 is the largest
region on the solar disk and has shown some minor decay over
the UT day. AR3534 (S12W41, beta) has shown spot development.
AR3538 (N25W00, beta) has shown spot growth. AR3537 (N19E27,
beta) has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period,
particularly in its trailer spots. An unnumbered region is visible
near N15E48 (beta) and has shown some recent decay. A second
unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern limb near
S20E85 (beta) and appears stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 05-07 Jan, with a chance of R2. S1
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 04-Jan. Further
S1 solar proton conditions are expected on 05-Jan, declining
to S0 over 06-07 Jan. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. A partial halo CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 04/0000UT. This CME is considered
a farside event and not geoeffective. A low velocity, southeast
directed CME was observed at 04/1236UT. This CME is also not
considered to contain an Earth-directed component. The solar
wind speed on UT day 04-Jan decreased, ranging from 385 to 490
km/s and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. A small coronal hole is currently
visible in the solar southeast quadrant and may mildly influence
the solar wind speed on 07-Jan. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 05-06 Jan before increasing on 07-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 12112112
Learmonth 4 21101212
Alice Springs 2 11101111
Gingin 2 20001112
Canberra 2 01101111
Hobart 3 11101211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01100100
Casey 19 34542223
Mawson 12 33322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 8 G0
06 Jan 6 G0
07 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 05-07 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1955UT 03/01, Ended at 2205UT 03/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2250UT 03/01, Ended at 2155UT 04/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Jan were
mostly normal for low to mid latitudes, with poor (PCA) conditions
observed at high latitudes due to S1 solar proton conditions.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 05-07 Jan, with further
PCA conditions possible at high latitudes on 05-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on
4 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Jan in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Perth. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 05-07 Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list