[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 4 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3536
(N05E34, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region
on the solar disk and has shown some decay in its leader spot.
AR3534 (S12W30, alpha) has shown some minor spot development.
Newly numbered AR3538 (N25E11, beta) has exhibited spot development
since appearing on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 04-06 Jan. Solar proton conditions reached the S1 level
on UT day 03-Jan. Further periods of S1 are expected over 04-06
Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A west directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
03/0312UT. This CME is considered a farside event and not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Jan increased, ranging from
385 to 495 km/s and is currently near 455 km/s. A weak shock
was observed in the solar wind at 03/0451UT, indicative of the
arrival of the CME associated with the X5.0 flare first observed
on 31-Dec. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+10 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 04-06 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23222332
Cocos Island 9 23222331
Darwin 10 23222323
Townsville 13 24223333
Learmonth 12 24232332
Alice Springs 10 23222323
Gingin 10 23222332
Canberra 10 23222323
Hobart 9 24222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 13132122
Casey 26 45542343
Mawson 37 45333374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2212 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 12 G0, chance of G1
05 Jan 8 G0
06 Jan 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Jan. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 04-06 Jan, with a chance of G1 on 04-Jan due to ongoing
CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1955UT 03/01, Ended at 2205UT 03/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Jan were
mostly normal for low to mid latitudes, with poor (PCA) conditions
observed at high latitudes due to S1 solar proton conditions.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 04-06 Jan, with further
PCA conditions possible at high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Jan in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 30%
enhanced in northern Australian regions. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 04-06 Jan.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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