[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 3 10:30:55 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1831UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-Jan was at the R1 level due
to an M1.1 flare at 02/1837UT. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3536 (N05E49, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most significant sunspot region being magnetically complex
and responsible for the one M-class flare of the UT day. This
region appeared stable over 2-Jan. AR3535 (S05W81, alpha) reemerged
on the solar disk, but is small, magnetically simple and soon
to rotate off the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 3-5 Jan,
with a chance of R3. The >10MeV proton flux has been elevated
over 1-2 Jan due to the X5.0 flare at 2155UT on 31-Dec. The flux
is currently rising, giving a chance of S1 conditions on 3-Jan.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 2-Jan. A west directed,
broad CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 02/1112UT.
This CME is possibly associated with coronal movement off the
western limb visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 02/1109UT. There
is no clear on disk activity associated with this event and it
is considered far side. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
Coronal loop breaking behind the northwest limb visible in SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery from 02/1256UT is associated with a northwest
directed CME visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 02/1412UT.
This CME is considered far side and not geoeffective. A slow
filament lift off is visible on the southern limb from 02/1656UT
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. There is no CME associated
with this event visible in available imagery. Due to the location
of the lift off, any CME is unlikely to be geoeffective. An eruption
is visible following the M1.1 flare at around N08E60 in SDO and
GOES SUVI imagery from 02/1833UT. There is no CME associated
with this event visible in available imagery. Due to the location
of the lift off, any CME is unlikely to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 2-Jan increased slightly, ranging
from 373 to 454 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -10 nT. A further
increase in solar wind speed is expected on 3-Jan due to an anticipated
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Dec. Elevated
solar wind conditions are expected over 4-5 Jan, with a decline
likely in the second half of 5-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32122221
Cocos Island 5 32111121
Darwin 7 32122221
Townsville 8 33122222
Learmonth 7 32122222
Alice Springs 6 22122221
Gingin 7 32122222
Canberra 8 33122221
Hobart 9 33123221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 32123411
Casey 27 55533333
Mawson 18 44333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0011 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 22 G0-G1, chance of G2
04 Jan 12 G0, chance of G1
05 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 2-Jan. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with several periods of G1 observed at
Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2 are
expected on 3-Jan due to an anticipated glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 31-Dec, combined with coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1
are expected on 4-Jan due to ongoing CME and high speed wind
stream effects. G0 conditions are expected on 5-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 2-Jan were
mostly normal, with periods of fair conditions observed at high
latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 3-5 Jan,
with degradations possible at high latitudes, particularly over
3-4 Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% for the first half of local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 134 was issued on
31 December and is current for 1-3 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 2-Jan in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values, with 15% enhancements observed in the northern
Australian region during local night. Isolated periods of sporadic
E was observed at Canberra and Hobart and spread F was observed
at Canberra during local night. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 3-5 Jan, with a chance of mild
depressions in the southern Australian region over 3-4 Jan due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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