[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 2 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0854UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.7 1225UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Dec was at the R1 level due
to an M2.3 flare at 01/0854UT and an M4.7 flare at 01/1225UT.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3536 (N05E63, beta-gamma)
is the most significant sunspot region, and was responsible for
both M-class flares of the UT day. An unnumbered region has developed
at N20E68 with beta magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 2-4 Jan, with a chance of R3. A fast,
east directed, partial halo CME was observed in SOHO imagery
from 31/2200UT. This CME is associated with the X5.0 flare observed
at 31/2155UT. STEREO-A imagery was limited during this CME, which
adds uncertainty to the analysis and forecast. Modelling suggest
a glancing impact with Earth on 3-Dec at 0300UT +/- 12 hours.
No CMEs were observed on 1-Jan. The solar wind speed on UT day
1-Jan was mostly stable, ranging from 300 to 372 km/s and is
currently near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -11 nT, with predominantly southward Bz
conditions since 01/1300UT. Anticipated solar wind speed enhancements
due to an equatorial coronal hole have yet to eventuate. An increase
in solar wind speed is expected over 2-3 Dec due to a combination
of coronal hole effects and a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 31-Dec. The solar wind is expected to be elevated
on 4-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 11122333
Cocos Island 6 10122232
Darwin 6 11122232
Townsville 9 11132333
Learmonth 8 10122333
Alice Springs 8 10122333
Gingin 7 10121333
Canberra 7 11122233
Hobart 8 11122333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 12 10034433
Casey 17 34433233
Mawson 19 33133345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 13 G0, chance of G1
03 Jan 22 G0-G1, chance of G2
04 Jan 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 1-Jan. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson
at the end of the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance
of G1 are expected on 2-Jan, due to a combination of coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects and a possible early glancing
impact from a CME first observed on 31-Dec, G0-G1 conditions,
with a chance of G2 are expected on 3-Jan due to the previously
mentioned CME and high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 4-Jan due to ongoing CME
and high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 1-Jan were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 2-4
Jan, with degradations possible at high latitudes, particularly
over 3-4 Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 98
Feb 95
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 134 was issued on
31 December and is current for 1-3 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 1-Jan in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values, with 15% enhancements observed in the northern
Australian region during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at Canberra and Cocos Islands and spread F was observed at Learmonth.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 2-Jan. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 3-4 Jan, with a chance of mild depressions in the southern
Australian region due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 22700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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