[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 1 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1913UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X5.0 2155UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Dec was at the R3 level
due to an X5.0 flare at 31/2155UT from AR3536 (N06E76, beta).
AR3536 is the returning AR3514 which previously produced an X-class
flare on 14-Dec. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3536 recently rotated over the eastern
limb and is the most significant region on the disk. This region
likely contains additional spots which are yet to rotate onto
the visible disk, making its magnetic complexity difficult to
determine. AR3533 (N15W75, beta) has decayed and will soon rotate
over the western limb. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R2 level
over 01-03 Jan, with a chance of further R3 level flares. Several
CMEs were observed on UT day 31-Dec. A filament eruption was
observed, visible in H-alpha imagery near N35W55 at 31/0935UT.
A subsequent CME is visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
31/1000UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain a geoeffective
component. Two additional filament eruptions were observed in
the southeast quadrant at 31/0509UT and 31/1609UT. These eruptions
both produced narrow CMEs neither of which are considered to
be Earth-directed. A west directed CME observed at 31/2000UT
is considered a farside event. A CME is yet to be observed in
association with the X5.0 flare. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Dec was
mostly stable, ranging from 305 to 335 km/s and is currently
near 305 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over
01-03 Jan due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 12001112
Cocos Island 1 01100010
Darwin 3 11000113
Townsville 5 12001114
Learmonth 3 12111102
Alice Springs 3 12000013
Gingin 3 12001112
Canberra 2 01001112
Hobart 2 12001102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01000002
Casey 12 23422214
Mawson 9 23211233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1210 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 10 G0
02 Jan 8 G0
03 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 31-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 01-03 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 31-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 01-03
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 134 was issued on
31 December and is current for 1-3 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 31-Dec in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. A shortwave fadeout was experienced
throughout much of the Australian region due to the X5.0 flare
at 31/2155UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 01-03 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 25200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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