[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 28 10:31:00 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 29 Feb 01 Mar
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Feb was R0. Solar region
AR3590(N17W25, beta-gamma) remains the largest region on the
solar disk, though appears to have declined in area and magnetic
complexity and has recently been flare quiet, producing only
a minor C3 flare. Small solar regions AR3595(N20E22, beta) and
AR3596(N17E50, beta) both produced a minor C flare and have shown
development. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are minor
and mostly stable or in slight decay. A small faint solar filament
located at S45E05 lifted off from 27/1108UT (SDO304 and GONG
H-alpha imagery). Plasma motion is evident in GOES SUVI 195 imagery
from 27/1120UT at disk location S40E40 to the east of the location
of the small filament eruption. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1, chance R2 levels over 28-Feb to 01-Mar. No new significantly
Earth directed CMEs have been observed in LASCO imagery up to
27/1136UT. STEREO-A imagery shows a predominately southward CME
from 27/1238UT. A model run using only STEREO-A imagery was conducted
assuming this CME was associated with the southeast quadrant
activity. Results show a possible slight graze of the underside
of the Earth's magnetosphere early on 02-Mar. The solar wind
speed on UT day 27-Feb was slightly enhanced due to a solar wind
stream from a small coronal hole, ranging from 388 to 454 km/s
and is currently near 396 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -8 nT. Bz was mildly (-8 nT) southwards
during the interval 27/00-05UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to now slowly decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 33211231
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 8 33211222
Townsville 9 33312222
Learmonth 9 33311230
Alice Springs 9 33211232
Gingin 8 33211230
Canberra 8 33201231
Hobart 9 33302231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 34212120
Casey 19 45521231
Mawson 29 55422263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3322 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 6 G0
29 Feb 6 G0
01 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Feb. In the Antarctic region G1 geomagnetic
periods were observed at Casey and G1-G2 periods were observed
at Mawson. The planetary Kp reach G1 for one period 27/03-06UT
in association with an interval of mildly southward IMF conditions.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-Feb to 01-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Feb were
fair to normal, with mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 28-Feb to 01-Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Feb were
near predicted monthly values. Hobart and Canberra MUFs were
at times mildly (15%) depressed. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 28-Feb to 01-Mar. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 80400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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