[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 29 10:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 1855UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Feb was at the R1 level
due to a long duration M1.5 flare at 28/1855UT from AR3590 (N18W50,
beta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3590 is the largest region and has shown
decay in its trailer spots, whilst some growth was observed in
its leader spots. AR3595 (N20E06, beta) has exhibited spot development
over the UT day. Newly numbered AR3597 (N07E17, beta) recently
appeared on the solar disk and is showing spot growth. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 29-Feb to 02-Mar, with
a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed on UT day 28-Feb.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
at 28/0855UT near S17E31. A subsequent east-directed CME was
observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 28/0936UT.
Modelling indicates this CME contains a geoeffective component,
with an estimated arrival at Earth's magnetosphere at 02/1100UT
+/- 12 hours. CMEs observed to the northeast at 28/0912UT and
to the southwest at 28/1527UT are both considered to be farside
events and not geoeffective. A west-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 28/1736UT. This
CME is associated with the M1.5 flare from AR3590. Additional
analysis will be conducted when more coronagraph imagery becomes
available. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Feb increased, ranging
from 365 to 470 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline over 29-Feb to 01-Mar, before
increasing on 02-Mar due to a CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11120011
Cocos Island 3 -3110010
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 3 21120012
Learmonth 3 21110012
Alice Springs 2 11120011
Gingin 2 11120011
Canberra 2 11120001
Hobart 3 11230001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 01042000
Casey 12 34432111
Mawson 20 42322155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3430 1231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Feb 6 G0
01 Mar 6 G0
02 Mar 20 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 29-Feb to 01-Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 02-Mar due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 28-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Feb were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 29-Feb to 02-Mar, with normal to fair
conditions for mid to high latitudes on 02-Mar. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Feb were
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 29-Feb
to 02-Mar. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 95700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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