[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 27 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 29 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Feb was R0. Solar region
AR3590(N17W25, beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the solar disk, with spot redistribution
and growth evident within its large leader spots and decay evident
in its smaller trailer spots. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are minor and mostly stable with slight growth or decay
observed. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
27-29 Feb. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 26-Feb was slightly enhanced and variable
due to a solar wind stream from a small coronal hole, ranging
from 358 to 450 km/s and is currently near 402 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -10 nT. Bz fluctuated
mildly southwards during the interval 26/00-09UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be mildly elevated over 27-Feb due to declining
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 32223011
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 9 32233022
Learmonth 6 32222111
Alice Springs 6 22223011
Gingin 6 32222111
Canberra 7 22133012
Hobart 7 22233011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 22355011
Casey 21 55442122
Mawson 17 45332322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 10 2322 3133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 8 G0
28 Feb 6 G0
29 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Feb. G1 geomagnetic periods were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 27-29 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Feb were
fair to normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 27-29 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Darwin.
Depressed 15-30% at Townsville.
Enhanced 15-30% at Learmonth during local day.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed 25% during local day Hobart, Canberra and Brisbane.
Enhanced 15-30% during local day at Perth.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 95 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on
25 February and is current for 25-27 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Feb were variable with east coast Australia
MUFS 15-30% depressed during the local day. West coast Australia
MUFs were near normal to 30% enhanced. Hobart and Canberra MUFs
are mildly depressed by 15% after local dawn this morning. MUFs
are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values over
27-29 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list