[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 26 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1722UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Feb was at the R1 level
due to an M2.0 flare at 25/1722UT from AR3590 (N17W13, gamma-delta).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3590 remains the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk. This region showed mild decay
in its trailer spots and some growth in its leading spots over
the UT day. Newly numbered AR3595 (N20E48, beta-gamma) recently
appeared on the solar disk and has exhibited spot development.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 26-28 Feb. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. Multiple
low velocity CMEs were observed from the western limb, but are
not considered to be Earth-directed. The solar wind speed on
UT day 25-Feb was mostly stable, ranging from 355 to 450 km/s
and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -10 nT. Several short periods of southward
IMF conditions were observed throughout the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain mildly elevated over 26-28 Feb
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a small
southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22223133
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 10 32223133
Townsville 10 22323133
Learmonth 10 23223133
Alice Springs 10 22323133
Gingin 8 22222133
Canberra 8 23222123
Hobart 9 23232123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 15 23254222
Casey 19 45432223
Mawson 20 45443222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1001 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
27 Feb 8 G0
28 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 26-28 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 26-Feb due to the combined
effects of a recent CME arrival and coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-Feb were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 26-28 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on
25 February and is current for 25-27 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced in the Australian region. Depressions of up to 25%
have been observed after local dawn in the southern Australian
region. Sporadic E was observed during local night hours at Hobart.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed 25/1133-1150UT at Weipa.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 26-28
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 60000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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