[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 25 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.5 0634UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1058UT possible lower European
M3.6 1118UT possible lower European
M1.0 1159UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Feb was at the R1 level,
with several low level M-class flares observed. The largest flare
was an M4.5 at 24/0634UT produced by AR3590 (N17E03, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3590 remains the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk and produced all the observed
M-class flares on 24-Feb. This region has exhibited some spot
development in its intermediate spots over the UT day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R2 level over 25-27 Feb, with a chance
of R3. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. An east-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
24/1712UT. This CME is associated with a filament eruption visible
in GOES-SUVI 304 from 24/1556UT near S10E80. This CME is not
considered geoeffective. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on 24-Feb. There is an increasing chance of S1 solar proton conditions
as AR3590 rotates toward the solar western hemisphere. The solar
wind speed on UT day 24-Feb increased, ranging from 300 to 405
km/s and is currently near 385 km/s. A moderate shock in the
solar wind was observed at 24/1618UT, indicative of a CME arrival.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -8
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 25-27 Feb
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a small
southern hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 11112322
Cocos Island 0 0-------
Darwin 5 10212312
Townsville 8 11113323
Learmonth 7 11112422
Alice Springs 6 11212312
Gingin 6 11112322
Canberra 6 10112323
Hobart 5 10112312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 00034112
Casey 15 34432232
Mawson 12 33223224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 20 G0-G1
26 Feb 12 G0
27 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 24-25 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 24-Feb.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 25-Feb due to ongoing
CME effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 26-27
Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-Feb were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 25-27 Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions
for middle to high latitudes are possible on 25-Feb, returning
to mostly normal on 26-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 25-27 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 53700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list