[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 February 24 issued 2331 UT on 23 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 24 10:31:00 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1328UT possible lower European
M1.5 1553UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.6 1747UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Feb was at the R1 level,
with several low level M-class flares observed. The largest flare
was an M2.6 at 23/1747UT. All flares observed over the UT day
were produced by AR3590 (N17E14, beta-gamma-delta). There are
currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk
and two unnumbered regions. AR3590 remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has exhibited
growth in its intermediate spots over the UT day. Newly numbered
AR3594 (N05E71, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb
and appears to show some mild spot growth. Two unnumbered regions
are visible near N15W70 (alpha) and N17W28 (alpha) and are both
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 24-26 Feb.
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on 23-Feb. There is
an increasing chance of S1 solar proton conditions as AR3590
rotates toward the solar western hemisphere. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Feb
was mostly stable, ranging from 315 to 360 km/s and is currently
near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over
24-26 Feb due to the combined effects of a component CME arrival
and a small southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11112002
Cocos Island 2 11111001
Darwin 3 11112102
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 3 11112101
Alice Springs 2 01112002
Gingin 2 10111002
Canberra 3 11112012
Hobart 3 11211002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00011001
Casey 9 24321022
Mawson 10 22211125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1212 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
25 Feb 25 G1, chance of G2
26 Feb 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 24-25 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23-Feb. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 24-Feb, with a chance of G1 due to
a CME component arrival expected late 24-Feb to early 25-Feb
from a CME first observed on 21-Feb. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to G1 on 25-Feb, with the chance of G2 periods
during the first half of the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 26-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Feb were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal on 24-Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions for
middle to high latitudes are expected for 25-Feb, returning to
mostly normal on 26-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 85 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on
22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 23-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Ionospheric amplitude
scintillation was observed 23/1453-1510UT at Darwin. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
on 24-Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected on
25-Feb for the southern Australian region due to an anticipated
CME component arrival. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 26-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 52000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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