[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 February 24 issued 2329 UT on 22 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 23 10:29:24 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.9 21/2307UT probable all West Pacific
X1.6 0632UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M4.7 2046UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X6.3 2234UT confirmed all West Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Feb was R3, with solar region
AR3590(N17E28, beta-gamma-delta) producing an X6.3, an X1.7 and
M4.8 X-ray flares. The solar radio burst emissions of the X1.7
flare were very weak. The solar radio burst signature of the
X6 flare is unknown at this stage. Intermediate spots of this
region have shown some redistribution in the past 24 hours with
some development below the main leader spot. AR3590 remains and
large complex region and further flare activity is expected.
There are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the disk
and a new unnumbered region. The other numbered solar region
AR3586(N29W31, alpha) is a simple single spot and has remained
flare quiet. The unnumbered region is most likely the return
of AR3575 with only a presumed leader spot currently visible.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 22-Feb.
There is an increasing chance for an S1 solar radiation storm
over coming days as AR3590 progresses further across the solar
disk to a more western longitude. Solar activity is expected
to be R2-R3 over 23-25 Feb. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Todays X1.7 and yesterdays X1.8 flare from AR3590 were not associated
with CMEs or radiation storms. The X6.3 flare will be checked
for any associated CME as imagery becomes available. The M4.8
flare was a short duration flare reducing the likelihood of an
associated CME and coronagraph imagery will also be checked for
any associated CME with this flare event. Some minor flare activity
has been observed at solar latitude N05 on the eastern solar
limb. The solar wind speed was steady and slow, ranging between
299 and 357 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected
to be near background levels over 23-Feb. A weak to moderate
shock is expected in the solar wind late on 24-Feb/early 25-Feb
from yesterdays CME/filament eruption. A small isolated coronal
hole centred at S20E10 is approaching solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22210112
Cocos Island 2 12210010
Darwin 5 21211113
Townsville 5 11211213
Learmonth 4 22210102
Alice Springs 4 22210112
Gingin 6 22310212
Canberra 5 12210113
Hobart 4 12211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 12220100
Casey 13 34432112
Mawson 9 34222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 6 G0
24 Feb 16 G0, with G1 periods possible late in UT day
25 Feb 25 G1 periods during first half of the UT day
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 24-25 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 22-Feb.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-Feb and most of
24-Feb. A CME component arrival is expected late 24-Feb to early
25-Feb from a recent filament eruption. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to G1 on 25-Feb, with the chance fo G2
periods during the first half of 25-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: A strong fadeout impacted HF communications in the southwest
Pacific region at 22/2234UT. Further fadeouts are likely on daylight
HF circuits. With respect to ionospheric frequencies of support,
HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Feb were normal.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 23-24 Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions for middle
to high latitudes are expected for 25-Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
24 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
25 Feb 85 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on
22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. A strong HF fadeout was
observed in association with the X6 flare 22/2234UT impacting
the southwest pacific region. Further HF fadeouts are expected.
Ionospheric amplitude scintillation was observed 22/1346-1410UT
at Weipa. Weak phase scintillation was observed at Darwin and
Weipa 22/1100-1500UT. Sporadic E was observed during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 23-24 Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions
are expected on 25-Feb for the southern Australian region due
to an anticipated CME component arrival. Northern Australian
region MUFs are expected to remain near normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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