[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 February 24 issued 2341 UT on 21 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 22 10:41:18 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.9 2307UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Feb was R3, with AR3590(N17E44,
beta-gamma) producing an X1.8 flare. There are currently two
numbered sunspot regions on the disk. AR3590 is a large relatively
complex region and further flare activity is expected from this
region. This region has shown development in its intermediate
spots. The other solar region AR3586(N29W15, alpha) is a simple
spot and has remained flare quiet. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 21-Feb. There is a slight chance for solar radiation
storm over the next three days. Solar activity is expected to
be R1-R2, with the chance of further isolated R3 flares over
22-24 Feb. A solar filament located at N05W35-N30W42 erupted
during the interval 21/1702-1818UT, visible in SDO304 and GONG
H-alpha imagery. In LASCO C2 space based coronagraph imagery
a westward and partially Earth directed CME is visible from 21/1848UT.
Preliminary modelling was conducted using a small number of C2
images and results show a relatively slow CME with a west biased
trajectory with an estimated Earth component arrival early in
the UT day 25-Feb. Two southeast non Earth directed CMEs, were
observed from 21/0212UT and 21/1612UT associated with southeast
limb activity at S40 in SDO193 imagery, which may indicate an
active solar region is just behind the limb. LASCO imagery will
be checked for any CME associated with the R3 flare as images
become available. The solar wind speed ranged between 261 and
370 km/s and is currently near 345 km/s. The solar wind speed
showed a slight steady increase after 21/0500UT, possibly due
to inherent background solar wind structure. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
near background levels over 22-23 Feb. A weak to moderate shock
is expected in the solar wind late on 24-Feb/early 25-Feb from
the filament eruption. Old solar region AR3575 which previously
produced R1-R2 flares is due to return to the southeast solar
limb around 21-Feb at solar latitude south 37. There has been
some plasma arch activity near this solar latitude possibly indicating
that this region is returning.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 10110222
Cocos Island 3 11110221
Darwin 3 10110113
Townsville 5 11111223
Learmonth 4 20111222
Alice Springs 4 10110213
Gingin 3 10101222
Canberra 2 10010112
Hobart 2 10110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 10 13333222
Mawson 5 30112221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0022 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 6 G0
23 Feb 6 G0
24 Feb 18 Initially G0, increasing to G1 toward the end
of the UT day.
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 21-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 22-23 Feb. A CME component arrival is expected
late 24-Feb to early 25-Feb from a recent filament eruption.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to G1 on 25-Feb,
with the chance fo G2 periods during the first half of 25-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Feb were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 22-24 Feb. Degraded HF conditions for middle
to high latitudes are expected for 25-Feb. Fadeouts are likely
on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 15% in the Australian region.
Ionospheric phase scintillation was observed at Darwin 21/14-15
UT MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 22-24 Feb. Degraded HF conditions are expected
on 25-Feb for the southern Australian region on 25-Feb due to
an anticipated CME arrival.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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