[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 20 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 21 10:30:12 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Feb was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions
on the disk. AR3584 (S13W57, alpha) and AR3586 (N29W03, alpha)
are stable; AR3590 (N17E57, gamma) showed some mild instability
in its trailer spots but has otherwise been quiet and remains
the most complex region on the disk. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 21-23 Feb.
Two farside CMEs were observed on 20-Feb that were both first
observed at around 19/2336 UT and are not expected to be geoeffective.
Coronagraph image availability has been limited since around 20/1100 UT.
As there have been no significant solar flares, nor any significantly
Earth-directed filament eruptions, no Earth-directed CMEs are assumed.
The solar wind environment was generally near background levels on UT day
20-Feb. The solar wind speed ranged between 275 and 360 km/s
and is currently near 280 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -8 nT. Solar wind parameter Bz was oriented
south for several periods of the day. The solar wind is expected
to be near background levels over 21-23 Feb.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 20-Feb and
are expected over
21-23 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11122112
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 6 11123113
Learmonth 4 10122112
Alice Springs 4 11122012
Gingin 4 11122112
Canberra 5 01222103
Hobart 4 01222102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 00234302
Casey 12 24422123
Mawson 9 22222323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 6 G0
22 Feb 6 G0
23 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 20-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 21-23 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Feb were
mostly normal, with some degradations in the northern hemisphere.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 21-23 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
22 Feb 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
23 Feb 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 25% in the Australian region.
Sporadic-E was observed in Canberra at local night hours and
signal spreading was observed at Darwin during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced over 21-23 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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