[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 February 24 issued 2331 UT on 19 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 20 10:31:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Feb was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. The only noteworthy region is AR3590 (N18E62,
beta-gamma); this region is close to the eastern limb making
it difficult to analyse, however magnetogram imagery suggests
it is the most complex region on the disk. Solar activity over
20-22 Feb is expected to be R0-R1.
A large prominence eruption can be seen from the beginning of UT
day 19-Feb in the solar northeast quadrant. This prominence eruption
was associated with a slow moving CME that was first seen at
19/0324 UT, but is not expected to be geoeffective. A small and
slow CME was seen from 19/1848 UT to the southwest and is not
expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were seen on 19-Feb.
The solar wind on UT day 19-Feb was at background levels and steady,
until 19/2220 UT when a weak solar wind shock was observed.
This shock is likely the glancing blow from a CME associated
with a filament eruption on 16-Feb. The solar wind speed ranged
between 265 and 458 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT. The solar
wind is expected to be near background levels over 20-22 Feb.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 20-22 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 0 00000001
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 10000002
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 01000001
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Gingin 0 01000001
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 23221101
Mawson 5 21001133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 10 G0
21 Feb 6 G0
22 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica region on UT day 19-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
ar expected over 20-22 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Feb were
mostly normal, with some degradations in the northern hemisphere.
HF radio radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 20-22 Feb. .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
21 Feb 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
22 Feb 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Feb were
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed from 19/1302-1510 UT at
Weipa. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced over 20-22 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 53600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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