[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 19 10:30:55 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Feb was R0. Solar region
AR3583(N09W66, beta-gamma) produced low to mid range C class
flares and this regions leader spots are starting to approach
the western solar limb. Smaller spots surrounding the leader
spot may have decayed slightly. A new region AR3590(N18E79, alpha)
has rotated onto the disk and also produced C class flare activity.
It is possible that trailer spots may follow the currently visible
single spot onto the disk. The other region of any significant
area AR3586(N29E23, alpha) which consists of single spot has
been flare quiet. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the visible solar disk. Other regions are either stable or
in decay. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A large far side/limb CME directed south southwest, was observed
from 18/1000UT in LASCO C2 imagery. The solar proton flux continues
to gradually decline to background levels. Solar activity is
expected to be at R0-R1 for 19-21 Feb. The solar wind ranged
between 360 and 296 km/s, and is currently near 299 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -7 nT. The
solar wind is expected to be generally near background levels.
A very weak enhancement in the solar wind conditions may be experienced
on 19-Feb due to a recent mainly northward directed filament
eruption.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21021001
Cocos Island 2 21011000
Darwin 2 21011001
Townsville 3 21021011
Learmonth 4 31022001
Alice Springs 2 21021001
Gingin 3 30121001
Canberra 1 11111000
Hobart 3 22121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11002000
Casey 10 34331011
Mawson 14 53221133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 10 G0
20 Feb 6 G0
21 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Feb. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions
were generally observed with a single period of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 19-21 Feb. A very
weak glancing blow from a recent filament eruption/CME may induce
a mild increase in geomagnetic activity on 19-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-Feb were
mostly normal at all latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 19-21 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
20 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
21 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 19-21 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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