[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 18 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 162/116 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Feb was R0. Solar region
AR3583(N09W44, beta) produced minor C class flares. This region
is currently the largest on disk and a number of small spots
around its leader spot have shown development. Departed region
AR3576 produced two C flares as it rotated over the southwest
limb. Small solar region AR3584(S13W18, beta) also contributed
a C flare. A new region may rotate onto the disk over the north
east limb at solar latitude N20, with some emission evident in
SDO imagery. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the visible solar disk. Other regions are either stable or
in decay. At present there is no significant solar region on
the visible solar disk. In GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery southern
solar limb ejecta is visible from 17/1329UT. No significantly
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A large far side/limb
CME directed south southwest, was observed from 17/1336UT in
LASCO C2 imagery, associated with the southern solar limb ejecta.
The solar proton flux is gradually returning to background levels.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 for 18-20 Feb. The
solar wind slightly declined further and ranged between 400 and
311 km/s, and is currently near 336 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +5 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
generally near background levels. A very weak enhancement in
the solar wind conditions may be experienced on 19-Feb due to
yesterday's mainly northward directed filament eruption.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11011012
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 3 11121012
Learmonth 2 20011012
Alice Springs 2 11011002
Gingin 2 21011002
Canberra 2 11011012
Hobart 2 11011012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11011001
Casey 10 43232112
Mawson 13 33112244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 6 G0
19 Feb 10 G0
20 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 17-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 18-20 Feb. A very weak glancing blow from a
recent filament eruption/CME may induce a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity on 19-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Feb were
mostly normal at all latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 18-20 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
19 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
20 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 18-20 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 81800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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