[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 17 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0251UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X2.5 0653UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M3.0 2209UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Feb was R3 due to an X2.5
flare from solar region AR3576(S16W88, beta-gamma). This flare
was followed by a minor solar proton flux enhancement, with peak
flux of 6.6PFU at 16/1030UT. This region also produced the M1
and M3 flares. Other regions were generally quiet, with minor
solar region AR3586(N29E49, alpha) producing a C6 flare at 16/1636UT.
Solar region AR3583(N09W31, beta) showed minor growth. There
are currently seven numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk.
Flare active AR3576 has just rotated off the solar disk. There
is currently no significant solar region on the disk. All other
sunspot regions are relatively minor and either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2, chance R3 on 17-Feb
with possible further flare activity from AR3576 from just behind
the southwest solar limb. R0-R1 activity is then expected for
18-19 Feb. A solar filament with centre located at N50W25 erupted
at 16/0241UT (GOES SUVI304). No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A farside CME directed southward was
observed from 16/0136UT.T The CME associated with the solar filament
eruption was modelled and results show the bulk of the CME passing
above the Earth, with a slight chance of grazing the top of Earth's
magnetosphere on 19/1700UT. The X2.5 flare was associated with
a CME which has been modelled as an Earth miss. The solar wind
environment was generally near background levels on UT day 16-Feb,
with a slight decline observed during the second half of the
UT day, and ranged between 430 and 353 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +9 to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11212202
Cocos Island 4 11212201
Darwin 4 11212202
Townsville 6 11313202
Learmonth 7 11323202
Alice Springs 5 11213201
Gingin 5 11312102
Canberra 4 12212101
Hobart 3 02212101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00101001
Casey 13 33433103
Mawson 7 24222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 9 G0
18 Feb 6 G0
19 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 16-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 17-19 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Feb were
mostly normal at all latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 17-19 Feb. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible on 17-Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 154
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
18 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
19 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced in the Australian
region. Minor shortwave fadeouts were observed 16/0248-0256UT
and 16/0649-0707UT. Scintillation was observed at Darwin and
Weipa between 16/1434-1620 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 17-19 Feb. Further isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible on 17-Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 97200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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