[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 16 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1707UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity om UT day 15-Feb was R1, with an M1.8
solar flare from AR3576 (S13W76, beta-gamma). There are currently
eight numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. AR3576, which
has maintained a high magnetic complexity during its transit
across the disk, appears to be decaying. This region is near
the western limb though, and cannot be analysed fully due to
limb foreshortening. AR3579 (S04W48, beta) is a relatively small
region but has shown fast growth over the past day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1-R2 over 16-18 Feb, although this may decrease
when AR3576 rotates over the limb.
A slow CME directed to the solar west was observed from 15/0148 UT
and is not expected to be geoeffective. A fast partial halo
CME was observed from 15/0936 UT and is likely associated
with ex-region AR3575, which is well on the farside. This CME
is not expected to be geoeffective, although a shockwave can be
observed travelling up the solar south pole on the front side
of the Sun. This shock wave is not expected to have any impacts
to Earth. No other noteworthy CMEs were observed on 15-Feb.
The solar wind environment was generally near background
levels on UT day 15-Feb. The solar wind speed was on a slight
decline and ranged between 465 and 354 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to -4 nT. There
is some weak coronal hole features along the solar equator
that may enhance solar wind speeds over 16-17 Feb but this is
not high confidence. Otherwise, the solar wind is expected
to be near background levels.
The 10 MeV protons are currently near 3 pfu and declining.
Solar radiation conditions over 16-18 Feb are expected
to be S0 with a slight chance for S1.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21110012
Cocos Island 1 2110000-
Darwin 2 2111001-
Townsville 3 21210012
Learmonth 2 21110011
Alice Springs 1 2011000-
Gingin 2 2111001-
Canberra 4 22110003
Hobart 3 11211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 1101100-
Casey 14 44431122
Mawson 10 3322223-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2210 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 10 G0
17 Feb 12 G0
18 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 15-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0755UT 12/02, Ended at 1930UT 14/02
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Feb were
mostly normal at all latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 16-18 Feb. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
17 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
18 Feb 145 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on
14 February and is current for 15-16 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced in the Australian region. Scintillation was observed
at Darwin between 16/1552-1620 UT. Brief sporadic-E was observed
at most Australian sites during local early morning hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 16-18 Feb. Isolated shortwave fadeouts re possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 95900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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