[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 15 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0310UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0735UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 182/135 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Feb was R1, with two M1
level solar flares. AR 3582 (N06W36, beta) and AR3576 (S16W62,
beta-gamma-delta) were responsible for these flares. There are
currently six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3576,
which has maintained a high magnetic complexity and potential
for solar flares, appears to have shown some decay over the past
day but due to its proximity to the western limb analysis is
limited. AR3584 (S13E21, beta) has shown some slight growth over
the day, but otherwise all other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a slight
chance for R3 over 15-17 Feb.
A large and fast partial halo CME was observed from 14/0412 UT.
This CME likely originated from ex-region AR3575, now sufficiently
farside, and is not expected to be geoeffective. A slow CME
directed to the west was observed from 14/1100 UT but is not
expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on 14-Feb.
The solar wind environment was indicative of background conditions
on UT day 14-Feb. The solar wind speed ranged between 350-500 km/s
and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total planetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. There is a small coronal hole
along the solar equator that may have a brief enhancement
to the solar wind speed over 16-17 Feb, but otherwise conditions
are expected to be near background levels.
The 10 MeV protons were enhanced at S1 on UT day 14-Feb
and peaked at 47 pfu. The 10 MeV protons have started to decline,
and have dropped to S0 solar radiation storm conditions, but
are still enhanced. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 15-17 Feb, although mild enhancements to S1 are possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Cocos Island 2 22100000
Darwin 3 22100002
Townsville 2 22110100
Learmonth 4 32100002
Alice Springs 2 22110001
Gingin 2 31000001
Canberra 2 22110000
Hobart 2 22110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12111000
Casey 16 55321111
Mawson 12 54221210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1212 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 6 G0
16 Feb 12 G0, slight chance for G1
17 Feb 12 G0, slight chance for G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in Antarctica. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17
Feb, although there is a very small chance for some isolated
G1 activity over 16-17 Feb due to coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0755UT 12/02, Ended at 1930UT 14/02
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Feb were
mostly normal at low and middle latitudes, but poor at high latitudes
due to ongoing polar cap absorption (PCA) due to the S1 solar
radiation storm. HF radio conditions are expcted to be normal
for low and middle latitudes over 15-17 Feb. Conditions are expected
to be degraded on 15-Feb at high latitudes, but on a general
improving trend over 16-17 Feb. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
16 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
17 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 18 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 14-15 Feb. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 19 was issued on 13 February and is current for 13-15
Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Feb were
near predicted values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed
at Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced over 15-17 Feb.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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