[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 14 10:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 192/144 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Feb was R0. Solar region
AR3576(S17W48, gamma) has shown spot reconfiguration and some
minor redevelopment, but appears to be in slow overall decay.
Region AR3582(N06W20, beta) has magnetically simplified with
a mix of slight growth and decay. Region AR3583(N12E13, beta-gamma)
is showing a more open spot configuration with slight decay in
intermediate spots. A new region appears to be just behind the
northeast solar limb at solar latitude N30. The solar proton
event currently in progress is now declining. Solar activity
is expected to be mostly R0-R1 over 14-16 Feb. No new Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. Solar wind slightly declined over the
UT day and ranged between 504 to 380 km/sec, and is currently
near 391km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +4 to -6 nT, with the IMF Bz mildly southward during the
interval 13/0655-1724UT. A very weak CME shock signature was
observed at 13/0139UT. A much stronger shock arrival expected
for 13-Feb has failed to eventuate. The ACE EPAM low energy ion
CME arrival precursor data channel is elevated, currently declining
and would typically be increasing as a CME approaches, possibly
suggesting either a less direct arrival or that the CME is travelling
considerably slower than modelling indicated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 22222413
Cocos Island 7 22121411
Darwin 10 21222423
Townsville 9 22222323
Learmonth 11 21222512
Alice Springs 10 22222413
Gingin 7 11221412
Canberra 9 21222413
Hobart 11 12332413
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 11233522
Casey 25 44642323
Mawson 36 25433743
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 25 G1, chance G2
15 Feb 14 G0
16 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 13 February
and is current for 13-14 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Feb. In the Antarctic
region G3 and G1 periods were observed at Mawson, a G2 period
was observed at Casey and a G1 period was observed a Macquarie
Island. The increase in geomagnetic activity forecast for 13-Feb
did not eventuate. In the Bureau magnetometer data a weak (7nT)
impulse was observed at 13/0227UT. An expected stronger CME has
yet to arrive and may possibly still arrive sometime on 14-Feb
inducing weaker geomagnetic activity levels, with the chance
of G1-G2 periods late on 14-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 12 02 2024 0755UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Feb were
normal at low to middle latitudes. High latitude/polar region
HF communication have been recently degraded due to increased
absorption from a S1-S2 solar radiation storm, which is now declining.
Degraded HF conditions forecast for 13-Feb due to the anticipated
arrival of a CME have failed to eventuate. In general normal
HF conditions are now expected for 14-15 Feb, though there is
some chance for a late arrival of the CME. Polar cap HF communications
are slowly improving as increased absorption from the solar radiation
storm declines.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% during local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 18 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 14-15 Feb. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 19 was issued on 13 February and is current for 13-15
Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Feb were
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
In the Antarctic region observed riometer absorption reached
2db on 13-Feb at Mawson and Davis and is now declining. Forecast
geomagnetic storm activity on 13-Feb has failed to eventuate.
MUFs are now expected to be mostly near predicted values to 15%
enhanced for 14-15 Feb as anticipated overnight geomagnetic activity
has failed to eventuate. Brisbane and Norfolk Island MUFs were
15% depressed after local dawn this morning. There is a chance
for degraded HF conditions on 15-Feb if the anticipated CME arrives
later than expected. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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