[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 February 24 issued 2331 UT on 12 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 13 10:31:01 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 11/2245UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M6.5 0348UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1309UT possible lower European
M1.4 1548UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.6 2118UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 208/159
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Feb was R2, due to a short
duration M6 flare produced by solar region AR3576(S17W36, beta-gamma).
This region also produced two M1 flares and is the most significant
region currently on the solar disk, and is showing a mix of growth
and decay. The other solar regions of note AR3582(N06W08, beta-gamma)
and AR3583(N12E25, beta-gamma) did not produce significant flare
activity, with AR3583 producing two low level C class flares.
These two regions are currently growing. There are currently
seven solar regions on the disk. Other regions are either stable
or in decline. Old solar region AR3559 appears to be returning
to the northeast solar limb at solar latitude N26, with an M2.6
flare observed late in the UT day on the northeast solar limb
near this latitude. This region produced R1-R2 flares on its
previous disk transit. A S1-Minor solar radiation storm is currently
in progress. Plasma motion was observed near AR3576 at 12/0359UT
at the start of the M6 flare but no CME was evident. Solar activity
is expected to be mostly R1-R2 over 13-15 Feb, with a slight
chance for R3. No new significantly Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. A large fast CME from behind the southwest limb
was observed from 12/0636UT, and another large angle CME from
behind/on the northeast limb from 12/1412UT. A more minor CME
northwest directed CME was observed from 12/1618UT. Solar wind
slightly declined over the UT day and ranged between 565 to 409
km/sec, and is currently near 444km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. Recent CMEs are expected to arrive
on 13-Feb. The ACE EPAM CME precursor low energy ion channel
shows a slight increase toward the end of the UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 22100001
Cocos Island 2 22100000
Darwin 3 22200001
Townsville 3 22100012
Learmonth 4 23200001
Alice Springs 3 23100001
Gingin 1 21100000
Canberra 2 22100001
Hobart 3 22200001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12200000
Casey 17 35532111
Mawson 11 44311003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 4322 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 45 G2, chance G3
14 Feb 25 G1, chance G2
15 Feb 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 10 February
and is current for 12-13 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Feb. In the Antarctic
region G1 periods were observed at Casey and G0 conditions were
observed at Mawson and Macquarie Island. The increase in geomagnetic
activity forecast for 12-Feb did not eventuate. Due to recent
CMEs geomagnetic storm conditions of magnitude G2, chance G3 conditions
remain expected for 13-Feb, with G1, chance G2 periods possibly
extending into the first half of 14-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1515UT 09/02, Ended at 1750UT 11/02
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 12 02 2024 0755UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
14 Feb Normal Poor-fair Poor
15 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Feb were
normal at low to middle latitudes. High latitude/polar region
HF communication has been recently degraded due to increased
absorption from a S1 solar radiation storm. Conditions are expected
to be initially normal at low to middle latitudes on 13-Feb then
becoming degraded due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity induced from recent CME events. Polar latitude HF communications
are expected to remain impacted by increased absorption.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
15% enhanced after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
14 Feb 70 Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Feb were
near predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region.
The Antarctic region is currently impacted by a solar radion
storm (S1-Minor). Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values
to 15% enhanced on 13-Feb, with depressed/degraded ionospheric
conditions possible later in the UT day. Generally depressed
conditions are expected on 14-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 559 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 262000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list