[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 11 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0051UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.4 0354UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M9.0 2307UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 194/146
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 198/150 198/150 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Feb was R2, with an M1 level
solar flare from AR3576 (S17W10, beta-gamma-delta) and a long-duration
M3 solar flare from a region just rotating on from the eastern
solar limb that has not yet been numbered. An M9 flare was observed
at 10/2307 UT from AR3576. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk, however the only region of
interest is AR3576. In the past 24 hours this region has shown
overall decay; its main delta spot appears to have weakened into
plage, but a new delta spot has grown. This sunspot region maintains
a complex FKC Zurich configuration, suggesting there is a high
chance for X-class solar flares. Solar activity over 11-13 Feb
is expected to be R1-R2, with a slight chance for R3 flares.
A fast partial halo was observed off the eastern solar limb from
10/0348 UT associated with the M3 solar flare. While this CME
originated on the limb, it has a wide extent and may have a very
weak glancing component to Earth around 13/2000 UT. This impact
is not expected to be significant. From 10/0632 UT, high C-class
solar flares were observed from around AR3576, clear post-flare
arcades and filament movement then followed. A CME that was mostly
deflected to the south was observed from 10/0700 associated with
this event and is expected to arrive between 12/1400 - 13/0000
UT. The post-flare arcades suggest the possibility for further
enhancements to the energetic protons when this region has a
more geoeffective longitude.
A slow CME was observed from 10/1512 UT directed to the south
but is not expected to be significant. No other CMEs were observed
on 10-Feb.
The 10 MeV protons were ongoing at the S2 solar
radiation storm levels until 10/1700 UT and reached a peak flux
of 187 pfu. The 10 MeV protons are currently near 70 pfu at
the S1 solar radiation storm level. S1-S2 conditions are expected
to continue on 11-Feb before returning to near background levels.
However, there is a possibility of further S1-S2 activity if AR3576
produces solar flares over 12-13 Feb.
The solar wind environment was generally steady on 10-Feb.
A weak shock was observed at the end of 09-Feb that went into
the start of 10-Feb, but no significant geomagnetic activity
was associated. The solar wind speed began near 500 km/s and
slowly declined to near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
generally near background levels on 11-Feb. An enhancement is
expected early on 12-Feb due to a recent CME from 08-Feb, although
it is not expected to be significant. Late on 12-Feb or early
on 13-Feb a further enhancement is expected to due to arrival
of the CME associated with AR3576. While no significant activity
is expected to be associated with the X3 and M3 associated CMEs,
shocks may still be observed from these events over 12-13 Feb.
Arrival times may be blurred together due to the high amount
of CME activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12221001
Cocos Island 3 12221000
Darwin - --------
Townsville 8 22332112
Learmonth 4 22222001
Alice Springs 4 12222002
Gingin 3 12221001
Canberra 4 12221002
Hobart 3 12221001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01121000
Casey 14 34532101
Mawson 5 23222000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 1103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 8 G0
12 Feb 18 G0-G1, chance G2
13 Feb 24 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 10 February
and is current for 12-13 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-Feb. Mostly G0
conditions were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period
of G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Feb.
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected from either late 12-Feb
or early 13-Feb due to a recent CME. Two shocks may also be observed
over 12-13 Feb due to recent CMEs, however these are not expected
to contribute to significant geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 02 2024 1515UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
12 Feb Normal Fair Fair
13 Feb Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Feb were
generally normal at low and middle latitudes and poor at high
latitudes due to polar cap absorption (PCA). Degraded conditions
due to PCA are expected to continue on 11-Feb before beginning
to recover on 12-Feb. Degraded conditions at all latitudes may
be observed from late 12-Feb or else early 13-Feb due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
12 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
13 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on
10 February and is current for 11-12 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Feb were near predicted values to 20% enhanced
in the Australian region. Polar cap absorption began at 09/1520
UT and has been ongoing, such that high latitude locations are
observing increased ionospheric absorption. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 11-12 Feb to 20% enhanced.
MUFs may be closer to predicted values to 15% depressed on 13-Feb
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degraded conditions
are expected to continue on 11-Feb at high latitudes. Shortwave
fadeouts are likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list