[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 10 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 08/2354UT possible lower West Pacific
X3.3 1314UT probable all European
M1.2 1800UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 183/136
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 178/131 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Feb reached R3 due to an
X3.3 solar flare. This X3.3 solar flare originated from ex-region
AR3575, which rotated off the visible solar disk nearly two days
ago. An M1.2 solar flare was observed at 09/1800 UT from AR3576
(S17E03, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the disk currently, but only region is noteworthy.
AR3576 is the largest and most complex region in the disk, and
has shown some growth over the past 24 hours. Despite some weakening
in its delta spot, it still maintains an FKC Zurich configuration,
suggesting it has high potential for X-class solar flares. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 10-12
Feb.
In response to the X3.3 solar flare, the high energy protons
began to increase. The 10 MeV protons breached S1 solar radiation
storm conditions at 09/1520 UT, and then S2 by 09/1820 UT. The
10 MeV protons are currently near the S2 threshold at 99 pfu.
S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected on 10-Feb with
a chance for S2, but are expected to return to near background
levels over 11-12 Feb outside of any further solar flares.
A CME directed to the southwest was observed at 08/2348 UT. There
is some ambiguity at the origin of this CME, whether it was associated
with the M3 flare from ex-region AR3575 that peaked at 08/2356
UT or else a small filament eruption that was observed at 08/2033
UT at S30W03. The more likely candidate for the origin of this
CME is the M3 flare, in which case this CME will not be significantly
geoeffective, but may have a glancing blow from 12/0100 UT.
A halo CME was observed in association with the X3.3 solar flare
that was first seen at 09/1325 UT. This CME is not expected to
affect Earth, although may pass close by due to its wide angular
extent. No other CMEs were observed on 09-Feb.
There is an unstable filament lying up the central meridian
from S20 to S40 and will be monitored closely. A filament is
also located over AR3576, making this region more magnetically
complex.
The solar wind environment was generally near background levels
until 09/1920 UT where a mild increase in parameters was observed.
The solar wind speed was generally steady and ranged between
400-500 Km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component range was +7 to -3 nT. An
enhancement to the energetic ions recorded by ACE EPAM was observed
from 09/1435 UT, suggesting a recent CME explains the increase
in solar wind parameters. Solar wind parameters may be enhanced
on 10-Feb and 12-Feb but otherwise near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21110013
Cocos Island 4 2-100013
Darwin 7 2-------
Townsville 4 21110013
Learmonth 4 30110013
Alice Springs 3 21100013
Gingin 4 31110012
Canberra 3 21110003
Hobart 3 21111002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 10011002
Casey 9 33331112
Mawson 6 22321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 13 G0, slight chance G1
11 Feb 8 G0
12 Feb 8 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 09-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 10-12 Feb. There is a slight chance of G1 on
10-Feb and again on 12-Feb due to recent CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 02 2024 1515UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Feb were
generally normal at high latitudes; normal to fair at middle
latitudes and poor at high latitudes due to a polar cap absorption
event that began from around 09/1520 UT and is ongoing. Degraded
conditions are expected in mid to high latitudes on 10-Feb, and
may recover to normal by 11-Feb outside of any further solar
flares. Low latitude conditions are expected to be normal. Shortwave
fadeouts re likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
11 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
12 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on
8 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 09-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours and sporadic-E was observed
at Brisbane during local dawn hours. Polar cap absorption began
at high latitudes from around 09/1520 UT and is ongoing. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 10-12 Feb. Degraded conditions are expected to continue
at high to mid latitudes due to the polar cap absorption event
on 10-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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