[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 9 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 1312UT possible lower European
M1.2 1418UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.8 1523UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1902UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Feb was R1, due to four
M-class flares all produced by solar region AR3576(S17E16, beta-gamma-delta).
This region has shown a mix of both growth and decay. Decay was
evident in surrounding spots and in the trailer spots. The large
main leader spots of this region grew in size, though the now
elongated large centre leader spot has greatly reduced in magnetic
complexity. However, the eastern most spot of the main leader
spot group currently retains mixed magnetic polarities. Overall
the region exhibits a reduction in magnetic complexity. Other
regions are small and either stable or in decline. There are
currently nine numbered sunspots on the disk, with minor regions
rotating on and off the solar disk. A very small 8 degree long
solar filament located at S30W03 erupted at 08/2039UT (GONG H-alpha).
LASCO imagery is currently available up to 08/1824UT, as the
filament is very small no significant CME is expected. Coronagraph
imagery will be subsequently reviewed to confirm this initial
assessment. Minor plasma motion and point brightenings were observed
from/near a C3 flare from AR3574(N14W19, alpha) at 08/0130UT,
which did not appear to produce a CME. Solar activity over 09-11
Feb is expected to be R1 with the chance of an isolated R2 flare,
due to region AR3576, which may be now starting to decay. No
significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A narrow
southwest CME was observed from 08/0125UT, which may be associated
with the C3 flare from AR3574 but confidence is low with this
association, and is currently considered more likely to be from
behind the limb. Two additional narrow southwest directed CMEs
were observed in LASCO C2 during the interval 08/1600-1700UT,
which are considered associated with activity on/behind the southwest
solar limb. STEREO-A showed a southeast directed CME from 08/1923UT
which is considered a behind the southeast limb event. The solar
wind speed slightly declined and ranged between 430-520km/s,
and is currently at 469km/sec. The solar wind is currently moderately
elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be elevated for today, with a continuing declining trend. Minor
solar wind enhancements may be observed over 09-10 Feb due to
weak glancing blows from southwest directed CMEs associated with
flare activity from region AR3575. Solar region AR3561 which
previously produced R1 solar flare activity may return around
to the southeast solar limb at solar latitude S17 on 9-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 22121121
Learmonth 4 11122211
Alice Springs 2 21111100
Gingin 4 21112211
Canberra 4 21111121
Hobart 5 22222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 10013210
Casey 15 44432212
Mawson 8 21223321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 14 G0, slight chance G1
10 Feb 13 G0, slight chance G1
11 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 08-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 09-11 Feb, with a slight chance of G1 on 09-10
Feb due to possible weak glancing blows from recent CMEs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Feb were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 09-11 Feb. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
11 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on
8 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
45% enhanced in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to be
near monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Feb. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list