[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 8 10:30:11 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.1 0331UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1805UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Feb was R2, with two M-class
solar flares. The M5.1 flare was from solar region AR3575(S35W87,
beta-gamma-delta) which is rotating off disk over the south western
solar limb. Solar region AR3576(S17E29, beta-gamma-delta) is
the largest and most complex region on the disk and produced
the M1.3 flare. The surrounding spots in this region appear to
be redistributing with a more open configuration apparent, whilst
the three main spots currently retain magnetic complexity. It
is possible this region could be in initial decay. Other regions
are small and either stable or in decline. There are currently
ten numbered sunspots on the disk. Solar activity over 08-10
Feb is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for an isolated R3
flare, due to region AR3576 and AR3575 may contribute flare activity
from just behind the western solar limb. No significantly Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. The M5.1 flare was associated
with a southwest CME and modelling indicates an Earth miss. The
M1 flare from AR3576 did not have an associated CME. Yesterdays
M1 flare at 06/1849UT from AR3575 was associated with an narrow
southwest directed CME which has been modelled as an Earth miss.
The solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated due to
a coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind speed was steady and
ranged between 430-530km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be elevated for today, with an overall declining trend. Minor
solar wind enhancements may be observed over 09-10 Feb due to
weak glancing blows from southwest directed CMEs associated with
flare activity from region AR3575.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 4 11111122
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 1 01110101
Gingin 2 11111101
Canberra 3 11111121
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01111010
Casey 15 35332222
Mawson 11 22322314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 6 G0
09 Feb 14 G0, slight chance G1
10 Feb 13 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Feb. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-10 Feb,
with a slight chance of G1 on 09-10 Feb due to possible weak
glancing blows from recent CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Feb were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 08-10 Feb. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian
region. A shortwave fadeout was observed 07/0312-0506UT. MUFs
are expected to be near monthly values over 08-10 Feb. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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