[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 7 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0228UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.2 0314UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1849UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 190/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Feb was R1, with two M-class
solar flares. An M4 flare was observed at 06/0312 and an M1 flare
was observed at 06/1850 UT, both from AR3575 (S35W75, beta-gamma).
There are currently seven numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3575
has been the most lare productive, and while it is close to the
western limb it does appear to be decaying. AR3576 (S17E40, beta-gamma-delta)
still maintains the strongest magnetic complexity on the disk
but has remained relatively quiet over the past day. The delta
spot of this region has appeared to weaken a little, but AR3576
has undergone both growth and decay and appears unstable. All
other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
over 07-09 Feb is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3,
as both AR3575 and AR3576 have high flare potential currently.
A full halo CME was observed from 06/1212 UT. This CME has been
deemed to be farside, despite a large filament eruption near
N40E10 from 06/0932 UT. A slow CME was observed to the north
from 06/1348 UT that is more likely associated with the filament
eruption rather than the full halo CME is. This CME is not expected
to significantly effect Earth.
Associated with the M4 and M1 solar flares from AR3575 were
southwestern directed CMEs. The CME associated with the M4
flare may have a glancing blow from 09/0200 UT, although
this is not expected to be significant. The CME associated
with the M1 flare has yet to be analysed due to image availability.
The 10 MeV protons began to rise in response
to the M4 solar flare and peaked at 1.06 pfu before descending
to background levels. An S1 solar radiation storm is possible
over 07-09 Feb, although not likely.
The solar wind on UT day 06-Feb was near background levels.
The solar wind speed was steady and ranged between 450-500 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to - 6nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
over 07-08 Feb, and then a weak increase may commence at the
start of UT day 09-Feb due to a glancing blow from a recent CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 32221112
Cocos Island 3 22111100
Darwin 5 32211102
Townsville 7 32222112
Learmonth 7 32122212
Alice Springs 6 32221102
Gingin 6 32121112
Canberra 4 22221101
Hobart 6 32221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 22020010
Casey 29 66433222
Mawson 14 53223231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1010 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 6 G0
08 Feb 6 G0
09 Feb 10 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Feb. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in Antarctica. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 07-9
Feb, with a slight chance of G1 on 09-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-Feb were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 07-8 Feb. Some mild depressions may
be observed during local night hours at high latitudes on 09-Feb,
but otherwise is expected to be normal. Shortwave fadeouts are
likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 158
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 155 Near predicted values to 25% enhanced
08 Feb 155 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
09 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
5 February and is current for 5-7 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 06-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed
during local night hours at Perth. Shortwave fadeouts may have
affected lower frequencies around 0228 UT and 0314 UT.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly values over 07-09 Feb,
with enhancements up to 25% possible over 07-08 Feb.
Shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 83800 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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