[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 6 10:30:08 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 04/2228UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.7 04/2237UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.1 0428UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0622UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Feb was R1, with three low-level
M-class solar flares. An M2 quickly followed by an M1 was observed
from AR3576 (S17E55, beta-gamma-delta) and an isolated M1 was
observed from AR3575 (S35W63, beta-gamma). There are currently
eight numbered sunspots on the solar disk. AR3576 is currently
the most significant and magnetically complex spot on the disk
and features a strong delta spot. AR3575 is also magnetically
complex, but has shown some decay over the past 24 hours. All
other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 06-08 Feb.
A CME to the southeast was observed from 05/0748 UT but it is
not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed
on 05-Feb.
The solar wind environment was generally reflective
of background conditions on UT day 05-Feb, although an increase
in speed was noted from 05/1520 UT. The solar wind speed ranged
between 344 to 481 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north-south IMF component range was +10 to -9 nT. The slightly
enhanced solar wind conditions may possibly be attributed to
a coronal hole, although this feature showed significant decay
over 04-Feb. A CME that was expected to arrive on 04-Feb may
have also contributed to the enhancement on 05-Feb, although
this is not high confidence. The solar wind is expected to remain
near background levels over 06-08 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 7 31212222
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 8 21222323
Alice Springs 6 22212222
Gingin 7 12221223
Canberra 5 11212222
Hobart 6 12212123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 11102112
Casey 21 45532223
Mawson 10 23322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0101 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 8 G0
07 Feb 6 G0
08 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with some periods of G1 in Casey. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Feb were
mostly normal. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 06-08 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 145 Near predicted values to 20% enhanced
07 Feb 145 Near predicted values to 20% enhanced
08 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
5 February and is current for 5-7 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed
during local night and dawn hours in Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced over 06-08
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 59300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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