[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 February 24 issued 2331 UT on 04 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 5 10:31:06 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1153UT possible lower European
M1.5 1638UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1713UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1829UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2057UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.1 2228UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.7 2237UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Feb was at R1 due to six
M-class flares. The low level M-class flares were from solar
regions AR3576(S17E68, beta-gamma) and AR3575(S35W50, beta-gamma-delta).
The largest flare was an M2.7 was from AR3576 which was the more
flare active. These two regions are the most significant on the
solar disk and are magnetically complex, with AR3575 currently
exhibiting the most magnetic complexity. Both these regions have
shown development, but the proximity of AR3576 to the eastern
solar limb makes assessment difficult, and more trailing spots
are rotating into view. Solar region AR3571(S20E29, alpha) which
recently produced a sequence of minor ejecta on 03-Feb and consists
of a large single spot has been flare quiet. There are currently
eight regions on the solar disk. Other regions are small and
either stable or in decay. A small new spot may be about to rotate
onto the solar disk at solar latitude S06. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at R1-R2, with a slight chance for an R3 flare,
primarily due to AR3575 and AR3576. No Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed increased and ranged from
306 to 449km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to -7 nT. The expected glancing blow from a recent CME
has failed to eventuate. The solar wind moderately increased
due to the Earth's entry into a coronal hole wind stream from
approximately 04/0900UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 12121223
Cocos Island 4 11021222
Darwin 5 12121212
Townsville 7 12131223
Learmonth 6 11132222
Alice Springs 4 02021212
Gingin 6 11121223
Canberra 5 02121123
Hobart 5 02121113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01100022
Casey 17 35432123
Mawson 12 23220135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 16 G0, chance G1
06 Feb 14 G0
07 Feb 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 2 February
and is current for 4-5 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Feb. In the Antarctic region
mostly G0 conditions were observed with an isolated G1 period
at Casey and Mawson. A glancing blow from a recent CME has failed
to eventuate. The Earth has entered a coronal hole wind stream
with little induced geomagnetic activity. Predominately G0 conditions
are now expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Feb were
mostly normal. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity has failed
to eventuate and mostly normal HF conditions are now expected.
There is an increased chance for HF fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued
on 2 February and is current for 4-5 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced in the Australian region. A very brief minor partial fadeout
was observed at east coast sites at 04/2235-2240UT in association
withe M2.7 flare, with only lower HF frequencies impacted. MUFs
are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. Mild depressions are no longer expected for the
southern Australian region on 05-Feb. There is an increased chance
for HF fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 15800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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