[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 4 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Feb was R0, with numerous
C class flares observed. The C class flare activity was predominately
from region AR3575(S35W35, beta-gamma) and a new region, AR3576(S15E84,
beta-gamma), currently rotating onto the solar disk. The magnetic
classification is an estimate due to limb proximity. Solar region
AR3575 has grown rapidly over the past 24 hours, though development
towards the end of the UT day appeared to slow. There are currently
eight regions on the solar disk, with other regions mostly stable
or in decline. The background solar X-ray flux has increased
over 03-Feb. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1, with
the chance of R2 flares over 4-6 Feb, mainly due to the new region
AR3576 rotating onto the disk and developing AR3575. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed was steady
and ranged from 293 to 327km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +1 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to moderately increase on 04-Feb due to a possible glancing CME
impact and a solar coronal hole wind stream from an isolated
coronal hole located in the southern solar hemisphere which is
expected to also moderately increase the solar wind speed from
late 04-Feb to 05-Feb. The 10 MeV energy solar proton flux is
nearing background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 1 21000001
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Gingin 1 10000002
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 32321111
Mawson 7 23111213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 20 G0-G1, slight chance G2
05 Feb 18 G0-G1
06 Feb 14 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 2 February
and is current for 4-5 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 03-Feb. A glancing
blow from a recent CME is expected on early 04-Feb which may
induce G1, with the chance of G2 geomagnetic conditions. A coronal
hole wind stream is also expected to mildly increase geomagnetic
activity from late 04-05 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Fair Fair
06 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Feb were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to become mildly degraded during 04-05 Feb for middle to high
latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. There is an
increased chance for HF fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued
on 2 February and is current for 4-5 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic E was observed
during local night hours at Canberra and Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced,
with the chance for mildly depressed conditions for the southern
Australian region after local dawn on 05-Feb. There is an increased
chance for HF fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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