[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 3 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0301UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Feb was R1, due to an impulsive
M1 flare from solar region AR3571(S20E55, alpha). AR3571 also
produced two C class flares. There are currently eight solar
regions on the visible disk, none of which are particularly significant
in area or magnetic complexity. Solar region AR3571 has been
mostly stable in area over the past 24 hours and consists of
a single spot. Solar region AR3567(N19E22, beta) and AR3565(N08E02,
beta) have both shown decay. Solar region AR3575(S35W22, beta)
and AR3570(S03E42, beta) are currently growing. Small region
AR3572 located at S12E14 has almost completely decayed. A new
region showed some activity from behind the southeast limb at
solar latitude S20. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A narrow west directed CME was observed from 01/2136UT associated
with a filament eruption near the northwest solar limb at N25.
The R1-Minor flare from AR3571 was associated with a southeast
directed CME first visible 02/0324UT, and this region produced
further southeast non Earth directed CMEs. A more eastward CME
was observed from 02/1336UT in LASCO C2 but could not be correlated
with on disk activity, perhaps associated with a region behind
the southeast solar limb. The solar wind speed slightly declined
and ranged from 320 to 365km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to moderately increase on 04-Feb due to a possible glancing CME
impact. A solar coronal hole wind stream from an isolated coronal
hole located in the southern solar hemisphere is expected to
mildly increase the solar wind speed from late 04-Feb to 05-Feb.
The 10 MeV energy solar proton flux is currently very slightly
enhanced at around 0.6PFU, with a slow declining trend.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11110000
Learmonth 1 11110001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 10110001
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 00210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 9 23432001
Mawson 8 23323201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1112 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 7 G0
04 Feb 20 G0-G1, slight chance G2
05 Feb 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 2 February
and is current for 4-5 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 02-Feb. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 03-Feb. A glancing blow from a recent
CME is expected on early 04-Feb which may induce G1, with the
chance of G2 geomagnetic conditions. A coronal hole wind stream
is expected to mildly increase geomagnetic activity from late
04-05 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 02-Feb were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal on 03-Feb, becoming mildly degraded during 04-05
Feb for middle to high latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued
on 2 February and is current for 4-5 Feb. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 13 was issued on 2 February and is current for 2-3 Feb.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Feb were near
predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced in the Australian region.
The R1-Minor flare briefly increased absorption during the interval
02/0300-0305UT for lower HF frequencies at Darwin, Townsville
and Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced, with the chance for mildly depressed
conditions for the southern Australian region after local dawn
on 05-Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 74200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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