[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 2 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Feb was R0. A C3 solar flare
was observed from 01/0744 UT from a newly developed region that
is currently unnumbered near N27E15. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions, all in the eastern solar hemisphere,
and most are small bipolar regions. While no significant overall
change has been observed in any of these regions, many of them
have shown subtle redistribution of their spots. Solar activity
over 02-04 Feb is expected to be R0-R1.
Several CMEs were observed from either near AR3571 (S15E61, alpha)
or else just beyond the eastern limb today. Many CMEs have been
observed just over the eastern limb this week, suggesting there
is a complicated magnetic structure over the limb and out of view.
The CMEs associated with this source are not expected to be
geoeffective. A CME directed to the north was observed from
01/0800 UT. This CME is associated with the aforementioned C3
flare. While most of this CME is directed north of Earth, a
glancing blow can be expected 04/0400 UT +/- 10 hours.
A CME was observed off the western limb from 01/2223
UT associated with a prominence eruption and is not expected
to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed today.
A weak CME impact was observed in the solar wind at 01/0520 UT,
likely the CME associated with the M6 flare on 29-Jan, however the solar
wind environment has already returned to near background conditions.
The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 453 km/s during this
event, but is now on a decline and near 370 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. There is a small coronal
hole stream that may briefly enhance solar wind speeds over 02-03
Feb, although this is low confidence. A larger coronal hole is
currently crossing the central meridian and may enhance the solar
wind speed by 04-05 Feb. The solar wind speed is expected to
increase on 04-Feb due to a glancing CME impact.
The 10 MeV protons are still mildly enhanced, but began a
relatively faster descent after the CME impact. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected over 02-04 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21221211
Cocos Island 3 11220210
Darwin 4 22220111
Townsville 4 21221111
Learmonth 5 21221211
Alice Springs 3 10221111
Gingin 4 10221211
Canberra 5 21231200
Hobart 6 11331211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 01242111
Casey 20 33642222
Mawson 18 43332443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1201 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 8 G0
03 Feb 7 G0
04 Feb 20 G1-G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G2 at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 02-03 Feb. A glancing
blow from a CME is expected on either late 03-Feb or early 04-Feb
which may induce G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Feb were
mostly normal with some degradations at high latitudes. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be normal over 02-03
Feb, but are expected to become degraded on 04-Feb due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 144
Feb 108
Mar 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
03 Feb 140 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
04 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Feb were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian
region. Sporadic-E and spread-F was observed in Perth. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 02-03 Feb, followed by 15-20% depressed on 04-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list