[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 1 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
on the disk. AR3565 (N08E28, beta) has shown some minor growth
over the past 24 hours; AR3567 (N19E48, beta) has been unstable
but had overall decay, and all other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. AR3567 is the most magnetically complex region
on the disk at this time. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1
over 1-3 Feb.
The 10 MeV protons are still declining, and currently
near 1 pfu. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 1-3 Feb as the region responsible for the enhancement has
rotated over the western limb.
A CME was observed off the eastern solar limb from 31/1349 UT.
Several prominence eruptions have been observed off the eastern
limb in the past few days, suggesting there is a complex magnetic
structure over the eastern limb. This CME is not expected to be
geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on 31-Jan.
The solar wind environment on UT day 31-Jan
was generally at background levels. The solar wind speed ranged
between 492 to 380 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT. The solar
wind speed is generally expected to continue to background levels,
although a brief enhancement may be observed over 2-3 Feb due
to a small coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere. The
CME that was first observed on 29-Jan with an anticipated glancing
blow has likely failed to connect with Earth at all, but there
still remains a small chance on 1-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 3 21111111
Alice Springs 3 12111111
Gingin 4 21111121
Canberra 3 12111111
Hobart 4 22211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11121010
Casey 19 35532222
Mawson 20 44322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2321 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 10 G0
02 Feb 10 G0
03 Feb 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctica region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 1-3 Feb. The geomagnetic field may be mildly enhanced on
01-Feb as Earth exits the influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
coupled with a slight possibility of a weak CME shock, although
this is not high confidence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0605UT 29/01, Ended at 0405UT 30/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 31-Jan were
mostly normal, with some degradations are high to mid latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 1-3 Feb, but some mild degradations are possible at high
latitudes, particularly during local dawn hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Jan were
near predicted values to 20% in the Australian region. Sporadic-E
was observed at Perth and Hobart during local night hours. Perth
was significantly degraded during local night and dawn hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 1-3
Feb. Some mild depressions may be observed in high latitudes
at local dawn hours on 1-Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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