[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 30 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 28/2214UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 0235UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 0430UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.1 0526UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.1 0718UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1224UT possible lower European
M1.1 1429UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M7.1 1509UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.3 1708UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2039UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.5 2153UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 255/205
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 255/205 240/189 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Dec reached R3, with an
X1.1 solar flare at 0718 UT. Solar activity on UT day 29-Dec
was complex: the X-ray flux was above M-class levels for a majority
of the day, with approximately 6-7 sunspot regions contributing
to continuous sympathetic flare activity. At least ten M-class
flares were observed throughout the day, as well as one X-class
flare. The contributing sunspot regions were AR3932 (S17W50,
beta-gamma), AR3933 (S08W74, beta-gamma), AR3936 (N13W42, beta-delta),
AR3938 (N19W01, beta-gamma), AR3939 (S17E21, beta) plus possibly
two regions behind the west and eastern solar limbs. ARs 3933,
3936, 3939 and 3941 have all grown over the past day, with AR3936
being the most complex region on the disk currently. All other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R1-R3 over 30-31 Dec and 01-Jan; background X-ray flux
levels may continue to be at M-class levels on 30-Dec.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 29-Dec. A faint and slow CME was
observed to the south from 29/0200 UT, and is expected to have
a weak impact to earth from UT day 01-Jan. A partial halo CME
was observed from 29/0624 UT, likely associated with M-class
flare activity from AR3939. This CME is expected to arrive at
Earth from late in the UT day 31-Dec. Two CMEs directed to the
solar southwest and northest were observed from 0912 UT, although
analysis is ongoing to determine the origin of this. From 1848
UT a weak CME can be seen directed to the south, likely originating
from AR3939. This CME is expected to arrive mid 01-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 29-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 30-31 Dec
and 01-Jan.
The solar wind was mostly undisturbed on UT day 29-Dec.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -7
nT. The solar wind speed was steady near 350 km/s for the first
three quarters of the UT day, before increasing to near 400 km/s
for the remainder. The solar wind environment is expected to be
at background levels on 30-Dec and the first half of 31-Dec.
>From late 31-Dec, the solar wind environment is expected to become
disturbed due to a CME arrival; conditions are expected to continue
into 01-Jan by when another CME is expected to arrive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11221112
Cocos Island 3 11221101
Darwin 4 10121113
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 6 21232202
Alice Springs 4 00221103
Gingin 6 21231103
Canberra 4 11221102
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 6 11331112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 01221002
Casey 24 24653212
Mawson 11 32343201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0101 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 6 G0
31 Dec 20 G2, chance G3
01 Jan 25 G1-22, chance G3
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Dec. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on UT day 30-Dec. By late 31-Dec, a CME arrival is expected to
induce G2, with a chance for G3 geomagnetic conditions. This
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue into 01-Jan. Two
other CME arrivals are possible on 01-Jan, contributing to the
enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jan Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal,
with some mild degradations at high latitudes and also in the
local night sector. Lower frequencies may have been affected
for much of the day for daylight HF circuits due to high levels
of background X-ray flux. HF radio propagation is expected to
be at similar conditions on UT day 30-Dec; degradations are expected
to increase late on 31-Dec due to anticipated geomagnetic activity,
and continue into 01-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 157
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 160 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 149 was issued on
27 December and is current for 28-30 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 29-Dec were near predicted
values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was common at most sites during
local night hours, however appears to be decreasing in intensity
and duration. Lower frequencies on daylight HF circuits may have
been degraded due to high background X-ray flux levels. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 25% enhanced over
30-31 Dec, before becoming depressed by 20% on 01-Dec due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 21200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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