[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 31 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 29/2330UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.7 0047UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.7 0300UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.5 0414UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0840UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 1011UT possible lower European
M3.5 1446UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.0 1654UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1730UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 1742UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 1824UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2241UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 224/174
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity R2-R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Dec was at the R3 level
due to an X1.5 flare at 30/0414UT. There was also an M5.0 flare
at 30/1654UT and twelve R1 level M-class flares over the UT day.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3936 (N15W52, beta-gamma)
was responsible for the X-class flare and the majority of the
M-class flares over the UT day, this region showed movement in
its trailer spots over the day. AR3933 (S05W80, beta), AR3939
(S18E10, beta) and AR3941 (S06E18, beta) were responsible for
the rest of the M-class flaring on 30-Dec. AR3939 and AR3941
showed trailer development over the UT day. All other numbered
regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region is
visible on the solar disk at S11E33 with alpha magnetic complexity.
Another unnumbered region developed on the solar disk at around
S10E50 with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is
expected to be at R2-R3 levels on 31-Dec and R1-R2 levels with
a chance of R3 over 01-02 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 30-Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 31-Dec to 02-Jan. A CME directed to the northwest
is visible on SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 30/0512UT. This
CME appears to be associated with the X-class flare at 30/0414UT,
an associated eruption is visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 30/0424UT
at around N15W50. Modelling suggests the majority of this CME
will pass ahead of the Earth but there is a chance of a glancing
impact at 0500UT on 03-Jan +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed
was in decline over the UT day ranging between 315 and 375 km/s.
The solar wind speed is currently at around 330 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -7 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to increase in the second half of 31-Dec
due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 29-Dec.
A further CME impact is anticipated on 01-Jan, likely further
enhancing solar wind speed. The solar wind speed is expected
to be elevated over 01-02 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 23312122
Cocos Island 5 13211121
Darwin 5 23211111
Townsville 8 23312122
Learmonth 8 23322122
Alice Springs 7 23312112
Gingin 7 23312121
Canberra 7 13312112
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 6 12312112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 02323011
Casey 17 45431122
Mawson 14 24422224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1012 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 30 G2-G3
01 Jan 25 G2-G3
02 Jan 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 78 was issued on 29 December
and is current for 31 Dec to 1 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 30-Dec. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey. G2 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G3 are expected on 31-Dec and 01-Jan due to
anticipated CME impacts on both days. Mostly G0 conditions are
expected on 02-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
to fair, with fair to poor conditions observed at high latitudes.
Lower frequencies may have been affected for much of the day
for daylight HF circuits due to high levels of background X-ray
flux. Similar HF radio propagation conditions for the first half
of UT day 31-Dec with degradations possible from 31-Dec through
to 02-Jan to to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 150 was
issued on 29 December and is current for 31 Dec to 2 Jan. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day
30-Dec were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E at low
frequencies was common at most sites during local night hours.
Lower frequencies on daylight HF circuits may have been degraded
due to high background X-ray flux levels. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 31-Dec to 02-Jan, with
a chance of depressions over the whole period due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 58400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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